Links for Wednesday, October 14, 2020

WORTH THINKING ABOUT

Pieces of news or analysis that caught our eye:

Taiwan war: “It’s relatively unlikely that we’re going to see an invasion anytime soon,” the Economist’s defense editor, Shashank Joshi, says on The Intelligence podcast today. This is primarily based on a U.S. government analysis that the Economist cited in a recent article co-written by Joshi:

American intelligence officials do not think that China is about to unleash this firepower. The PLA’s amphibious fleet has grown slowly in recent years. China has never held even a single exercise on the scale that would be required for a d-Day-type campaign. Indeed, no country has assaulted a well-defended shore since America did so in Korea — with good reason.

The section of the 2020 China Military Power Report that deals with China’s Strategy and Capabilities Development in the Taiwan Strait begins on page 112. While noting, “The PLA is capable of accomplishing various amphibious operations short of a full-scale invasion,” including “an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” or even “invasion of a medium-sized, better-defended island such as Matsu or Jinmen,” these kinds of operations would involve “significant, and possibly prohibitive, political risk because it could galvanize pro-independence sentiment on Taiwan and generate international opposition.” The note on amphibious fleet capabilities is on page 117:

There is also no indication China is significantly expanding its force of [landing ship transports] and medium sized landing craft at this time — suggesting a direct beach-assault operation requiring extensive lift is less likely in planning.

MORE NEWS FROM AROUND THE WORLD

BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY:

• The draft data security law
  China mulls severe penalties in new data protection law / Caixin (paywall)
  “Proposed legislation stipulates maximum fine of 50 million yuan [$7.4 million] for illegal handling of personal information.”
  Storing life on a mobile phone can be hazardous to your identity, viral post shows / Caixin (paywall)
  Related, on The China Project: Why the U.S. should pay attention to China’s draft Data Security Law.
• iPhone 12 launch: Censorship, 5G, and social media opinion
  Apple product launch livecast absent from Chinese social media / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
  “When Apple unveiled new versions of the devices remotely via the internet on Tuesday in the U.S., sites including Tencent Video, iQiyi, Bilibili and Weibo, didn’t carry the feed, without giving a reason.”
  Apple counts on 5G to boost iPhone fortunes in China / WSJ (paywall)
  “Apple’s first 5G-enabled handset is a late entry in China, where local brands have long offered a suite of 5G-ready gadgets to use on the nation’s up-and-running next generation networks.”
  In China, Apple’s 5G iPhone 12 sparks fever-pitch, but divided reaction / Reuters
  Better late than never? China reacts to new iPhone12 / Caixin
• Threats to Tesla and electric vehicle competition
  Tesla cuts prices of Model S in United States, China / Reuters
  Tesla beefing up its public, government relations teams in China / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
  Meet the cheap Chinese electric car selling twice as fast as Tesla’s Model 3 / Caixin (paywall)
  “Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, launched in July by a Guangxi-based General Motors tie-up, is targeting the underserved low-end NEV market.”
  SAIC Motor devises plan to wrest electric vehicle sales crown from Tesla / Caixin (paywall)
  New-energy vehicle resurgence turbocharges BYD profits / Caixin (paywall)
  “BYD attributed the growth to a major rebound in September sales of ‘new energy vehicles’ (NEVs), up 45% year-on-year to some 19,800 units, rising from a low of just 2,800 in February. September was the first month in 2020 that BYD saw year-on-year growth in sales of its NEVs.”
  Audi to launch new electric vehicle venture with China’s FAW / Reuters
  Tesla beefing up its public, government relations teams in China / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
• Huawei may sell part of its smartphone business for $3.7 billion
  Exclusive: Huawei in talks to sell parts of its Honor smartphone business / Reuters
• Countering risks in third-party payments
  China to set protection fund for booming payments industry / Caixin (paywall)
  “The PBOC is aiming to raise 1 billion yuan ($149 million) for the fund by taking a cut of the interest third-party platforms get on the trillions of yuan of customers’ money they are required to deposit into accounts managed by the central bank.”
• Biotech fundraising
  Chinese biotech firm EdiGene nabs $67m from Sequoia, IDG, others / Caixin
• Lenovo takes back top-selling title from HP
  Lenovo is once again the king of PC sales / Caixin (paywall)
• Japanese brand will double stores in Asia, with focus on China
  Children’s clothier Miki House sets sights on rich Chinese parents / Nikkei Asia

SCIENCE, HEALTH, AND THE ENVIRONMENT:

• Locally transmitted COVID-19 cases in China
  Mainland China reports 20 new COVID-19 cases versus 13 a day earlier / Reuters
  “Six of the cases were local transmissions in Shandong Province.”
  China carries out 4.2 million tests in Qingdao / AP
  “The local cases included seven that had been shifted to confirmed from asymptomatic. It wasn’t immediately clear whether any of those involved cases reported in Qingdao.”
  Related, on The China Project: China to test nine million Qingdao residents after 12 COVID-19 cases detected.

POLITICS AND CURRENT AFFAIRS:

• China touts “high recognition” of Beijing’s “human rights achievements”
  China sees affirmation in election to Human Rights Council / AP
  “Amid the criticism, China won reelection with 139 votes, 30% fewer than the 180 it garnered in 2016.”
  Hua Chunying 华春莹 on Twitter: “China was again elected as a member of the #HumanRightsCouncil. This is a recognition of China’s human rights achievements. We thank all those countries which supported China and congratulate other elected members.”
  Related, on The China Project: Criticism of China’s Xinjiang policies grows at UN.
• Canada’s line on China hardens
  Canada’s Trudeau hits China on human rights, ‘coercive diplomacy’ / Al Jazeera
• South Korean’s China-skeptic youth
  Young South Koreans turn on China as Hong Kong, coronavirus weigh on minds / SCMP
  “A recent Pew Research survey found South Korea stood apart as the only country where youth were more negative towards China than their elders.”
• Australia-China tensions
  Australia says it’s deeply concerned about writer in China espionage trial / Reuters
  Australian politician tells inquiry Chinese visa scheme was a scam / Reuters
• Hong Kong updates
  Security law: over 100 scholars call for ‘united front’ to defend academic freedom / HKFP
  Another Hong Kong magistrate reassigned after criticism of protest rulings / HKFP

SOCIETY AND CULTURE:

• Profiles of women from Wuhan
  How three Wuhan women survived the pandemic: Rap, poems, mooncakes / NPR
  “We spoke to three women from the capital of central China’s Hubei Province to see how they’ve been coping during the pandemic: A rap mogul who sprang into action as a medical volunteer, a grandmother who’s happy to step outside again (and tease her granddaughter in the U.S.) and a writer now living in Las Vegas who uses her poetry to fight stereotypes against Chinese people — and finds joy by dancing hopelessly.”
• Disappearing Shanghai
  Shanghai’s urban scavengers rescue memories of a vanishing city / Sixth Tone
  “Just before historical neighborhoods are razed, collectors of everyday items swoop in for one last rummage through the ruins.”
• New York’s Chinese community 
  One of NYC’s last Chinese hand laundries closes / NYT (porous paywall)