Links for Tuesday, November 3, 2020

WORTH THINKING ABOUT

Pieces of news or analysis that caught our eye:

Can China double its GDP by 2035? Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 said today (in Chinese) that “doubling” (翻一番 fān yī fān) either total GDP or GDP per capita by that date is “completely possible.”  

But this will depend at least partly on how the international situation changes for China. The Wall Street Journal reports:

Oxford Economics calculates that significant economic decoupling with the U.S. alone would entail a roughly 8% smaller Chinese economy by 2040 than otherwise expected. If other advanced economies join the bandwagon, that could mean a 17% smaller economy. There is little sign of such a concerted effort now — but that might change with a more multilaterally-minded White House, or if the bilateral investment treaty long under negotiation between Europe and China falls apart.

Significant decoupling is far from a foregone conclusion, but Beijing does not seem to be prioritizing reducing friction for Western business leaders and politicians already wary of China’s high industrial subsidies:

• “An agency led by President Xi Jinping to advance institutional changes in China has approved a new plan to make state-owned enterprises ‘stronger, better and bigger,’” the South China Morning Post reports — but continued emphasis on state ownership is exactly what may alienate the U.S. and Europe in years to come.

Another not-so-encouraging sign for liberal market reform in China:

• “China must control population density in its major cities, Xi said in a speech delivered on April 10, a transcript of which was published [in Chinese] in the latest edition of Qiushi, an official Communist Party journal,” the SCMP says.
• Commenting on Xi’s April 10 speech, Dexter Roberts, a veteran reporter on migrant workers in China, says that it is “one more reason to believe the Chinese gov’t has no intention of carrying out a hukou [户口 hùkǒu; residency permit] reform actually giving migrants power to decide where to live. Instead likely to continue to make top cities into exclusive zones for wealthier/better-educated while pushing migrants into lower tier cities regardless whether there are jobs or any opportunities there…”

MORE NEWS FROM AROUND THE WORLD

BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY:

• The booming business of education
  World’s top hedge fund soars 275% with huge bet on China schools / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
• Can Hainan Island become a Chinese shopping paradise?
  China envisions a new Hong Kong, firmly under its control / NYT (porous paywall)
  “Chinese officials say they want to complement Hong Kong, not replace it. And in any case, making Hainan a free-trade mecca will not be easy. Over the past few years, at least 21 free-trade zones have been introduced in places like Tianjin, Shanghai and elsewhere. Most never took off… Local officials say their new campaign is different. Rather than catering to importers and exporters, they have unveiled efforts to appeal to shoppers, the wealthy and even those seeking face-lifts.”
• Can cost cutting save cheap ride sharing?
  Didi’s budget service has a plan to subsidize rides for the long haul / Caixin (paywall)
• TikTok signs deal with Sony Music Entertainment
  TikTok pursues ‘user personality’ with SME Partnership / Caixin
• Volvo opens electric research lab in Shanghai
  Volvo continues its EV commitment with new research lab in China / MotorTrend
• Preparing for potential U.S. election-related volatility
  China state banks plan curbs on metals, forex trades if U.S. election fuels volatility / Reuters
  Spiking volatility in China shows global markets are nervous / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
  Traders prepare for storm of election-fueled tumult in China’s currency / FT (paywall)
• Tsinghua Unigroup: Another chipmaker in trouble?
  Prestigious university’s chipmaking progeny fails to buy back 1 billion yuan bond / Caixin (paywall)
  Related The China Project reporting: How China’s would-be silicon savior became a debt-ridden disappointment.

SCIENCE, HEALTH, AND THE ENVIRONMENT:

• China’s crackdown on illegal fishing domestically largely ignores overseas fleets
  China’s illegal fishing crackdown rings hollow / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
  Adam Minter writes, “China is far from alone in these practices. But it is, by far, the world’s leading violator… Earlier this year, China indicated it would crack down, but the practices and tensions have persisted.”
• International experts skeptical of frozen food COVID transmission claims
  Frozen food packages in China keep testing positive for coronavirus. Here’s why health experts aren’t worried / TIME
• Xinjiang mass testing continues, and more asymptomatic cases found
  China reports 49 new coronavirus cases, conducting mass testing in Xinjiang / Reuters
  “Kashgar and Akto county in neighbouring Kizilsu launched their third round of testing on November 1, after completing the first and second rounds since October 27. As of November 2, Kashgar had 62 confirmed cases, while Kashgar and Kizilsu had a total of 231 asymptomatic cases.”

POLITICS AND CURRENT AFFAIRS:

• Hong Kong arrests journalist for report that was unflattering to police
  Hong Kong police arrest producer of TV documentary about Yuen Long mob attacks / HKFP
  “Freelancer Choy Yuk Ling [蔡玉玲 Coi3 Juk6 Ling4 Cài Yùlíng] was arrested in the afternoon in connection to the use of car license plate records in an episode of RTHK’s Hong Kong Connection… Using public records obtained by searching vehicle license plate numbers provided by the Department of Transport, producers visited the homes of several individuals to seek comment from them… The documentary presented evidence that at least one plain clothes police officer was on the scene as individuals in white shirts started to gather on the streets prior to the attack in the MTR station.”
• Pressure on Australia continues to ramp up
  China-Australia relations: ban on $400 million Australian wheat imports looms / SCMP
  China to halt key Australia imports in retaliation as ties falter / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
  “China has ordered traders to stop purchasing at least seven categories of Australian commodities, ratcheting up tensions with a key trading partner in its most sweeping retaliation yet… Commodities traders in China won’t be able to import products including coal, barley, copper ore and concentrate, sugar, timber, wine and lobster.”
  Australia’s economic dependency on China ‘will not change,’ says former ambassador to Beijing / Guardian
  Related The China Project coverage: Beijing continues to punish Australia, hobble WHO to prevent independent COVID-19 investigation.
• Canada expects U.S. election to impact its China relations
  Next U.S. president will influence testy Canada-China relations / Politico
• Germany navigates U.S.-China divide
  As U.S.-China relations worsen, Germany looks out for its own interests / NPR
  Germany refuses to turn a ‘blind eye’ to China, teams up with Australia / Sydney Morning Herald
• Drone purchases and sales by U.S. government
  Air force purchase of Chinese drones spurs security concerns / WSJ (paywall)
  U.S. drone sale to Taiwan crosses key hurdle, nears approval / SCMP
• China and Nepal government deny claim of territory loss
  China rejects Nepali opposition claims of border landgrab / SCMP

SOCIETY AND CULTURE:

• Shanghai wants to be a global esports capital
  Chinese city sponsors $30,000 esports tournament for residents / Sixth Tone
  Related The China Project reporting: League of Legends World Championship concludes in Shanghai.
• “Stand By Her” art-activism exhibition in Shanghai
  Art exhibition by women, for women held in Shanghai / Sixth Tone
• First Chinese head of World Sailing
  Sailing: China’s Li Quanhai named president of World Sailing / Reuters
• Flattery of teachers and exploitation of parents on teacher-parent WeChat groups
  The ‘tyranny’ of parent teacher social media chat groups / Caixin