Editor’s note for Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Dear Access member,

“Today, I reported to Congress that Hong Kong is no longer autonomous from China, given facts on the ground,” tweeted U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The New York Times says this indicates “the Trump administration was likely to end some or all of the United States government’s special trade and economic relations with the territory in southern China,” a move that has “been discussed for days by foreign policy aides.”

The context is the November 2019 signing into law of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act by President Donald Trump, which would allow a break from current U.S. policy that treats Hong Kong as an entity separate from the People’s Republic of China for trade and immigration. 

A “nothingburger” is what nationalist rag Global Times calls the possible U.S. move, but as the New York Times points out, changing Hong Kong’s trading and legal relationship with the U.S. “could have far-reaching consequences for global commerce and transform the ways that Chinese and foreign companies operate, as well as upend the lives of many residents of the territory.”

The U.S. changing the status of Hong Kong would not be a nothingburger: It could mean restrictions on investment, tariffs on products coming from Hong Kong, all kinds of difficulties for Hong Kong’s financial markets, or obstacles for Hongkongers to travel to the U.S. It’s difficult to see who wins from any of this — it’s lose-lose-lose, for the people of Hong Kong, for the U.S., and the Chinese party-state.

Expect things to get worse: Beijing won’t back down, and if the Trump administration has learned anything over the past three years, it’s that there are no consequences for reckless behavior.

In fact, things have already got worse, at least when it comes to China’s relationship with the U.S., and with Canada. “A British Columbia Supreme Court judge has ruled that a critical test in the extradition case of Huawei executive Mèng Wǎnzhōu 孟晚舟 has been met, and the extradition process will continue,” reports CTV news from Vancouver. Right on cue, the Global Times says that the ruling “shows Canada lost judicial, diplomatic independence to U.S. bullying.” The Global Times made no mention of Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, the two Canadians whom Beijing detained in retaliation for Meng’s arrest.

My comment: Things can always get even worse, and probably will. Especially relations between China and the U.S. and Canada, and the conditions under which Kovrig and Spavor are being held.

STOP PRESS: “The House of Representatives on Wednesday passed legislation condemning China for the detention and torture of Uyghur Muslims in the country’s western region of Xinjiang as tensions between the U.S. and China continue to escalate,” reported CNBC, as we were about to send this newsletter.

Our word of the day is Line of Actual Control: 实际控制线 shíjì kòngzhì xiàn. See story one for more on this phrase that has allowed India and China to get on despite having no agreement on their borders.

—Jeremy Goldkorn, Editor-in-Chief