NEXTChina 2022

Our annual NEXTChina Conference, which examines China’s role in international politics, business, and cooperation, took place on November 9 and 10. 

The two-day event was themed after the contentious relationship China and America have found themselves in since the start of the trade war and into the global pandemic: “The Perfect Storm: How to Weather the U.S.-China Divide.” It convened a diverse group of thought leaders and experts on Chinese domestic politics, international trade, tech and cybersecurity, and investments in both private and public sectors.

Day 1 panel discussions

The first day drew eight hundred plus registrants from around the world to watch virtually, as well as a young group of eager attendees to live-watch meetups in Washington, D.C., New York City, and London. You can watch the entire event on YouTube, or read on for a summary.

Founder Anla Cheng and CEO Bob Guterma kicked off the conference by welcoming the attendees and speakers, and providing information about The China Project’s business strategy going into 2023.

We then heard from our keynote speaker and this year’s Lifetime Achievement Award honoree, Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, and current senior fellow at the Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center. 

In his keynote, Roach discussed the ideas in his latest book, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives. 

Roach shared how both countries have promoted false narratives to shift blame, providing “politically expedient cover for the vulnerabilities of two nations who are not as confident as their bluster might lead you to believe.” 

He warned that in this atmosphere of false narratives, tensions such as Taiwan, the war in Ukraine, the trade war, the tech war, and an impending global recession could each be a spark that sets off a full-blown bilateral conflict.  

Roach’s new book discusses these matters, but also proposes a three-step plan to deescalate the mounting pressure and reestablish trust between the two vying powers.

Following the keynote, Sinica Podcast host Kaiser Kuo moderated a panel discussion on China’s most recent 20th Party Congress. Pointing out the significant number of Politburo members’ former titles as coastal province Party secretaries, Damien Ma, managing director of MacroPolo, said, “You can make a pretty strong case that Xi’s got about 40% of the Chinese GDP locked down.”

Yun Sun, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, countered, “What if Xi Jinping’s number one priority is no longer economic growth?”

Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS, commented on Xi’s consolidation of power. “We’re essentially done with debates about massive swings in policy,” he said about the ideological uniformity of Xi’s Politburo Standing Committee. 

The next panel, moderated by Matthew Rabinowitz, counsel at Pillsbury, addressed the possibility and prospects of rebuilding global trade routes and the state of the trade war as inflation hits highs around the world.

Thomas Christensen, director of the China and the World Program at Columbia University, SIPA, addressed the policy rationale for the Biden administration’s significantly expanded export controls, and the prohibition of the sale of advanced U.S. computer chips and chipmaking technology to China.  

Joseph Zeng, founder and chairman of Arcadia Fund, addressed the practical impact of these new controls, both with respect to China’s tech ambitions and on American exports. 

Margaret Pearson, Dr. Horace E. and Wilma V. Harrison Distinguished Professor at the University of Maryland, College Park, discussed the mutual securitization of our two economies.  

Given recent reports of potential new rules regulating outbound U.S. investment, targeted primarily at China, the panelists commented on the likelihood of an outbound investment regime being put in place, and what it will mean for U.S.-China economic relations.

The third panel of the day, moderated by Samm Sacks, cybersecurity policy fellow at New America, addressed whether the tech and energy sectors will become a place for cooperation or competition between the U.S. and China. 

Paul Triolo, senior VP of China tech policy at Albright Stonebridge Group, began the panel with a high-level take on the recent export control package in context. 

Jerry Wang, CEO of Hi2 Global, discussed tech investment opportunities in China, specifically, for American LPs investing into China and Chinese LPs investing in the U.S. 

Catherine Pan, partner at Dorsey & Whitney, shared her observations on cross-border investment between the two countries. 

The panel commented on how investment trends could be impacted by a possible new U.S. outbound investment review regime. 

To round out the night, host Lizzi Lee of The China Project’s Live with Lizzi Lee online video program moderated a panel to highlight strategies for the future. Our all-star panel commented on the possibility of course corrections on COVID restrictions, the property market cleanup, and the tech sector regulatory crackdown. 

Gary Rieschel, founding managing partner of Qiming Venture Partners, commented, “The real risk to an investor in China is from the U.S., not from China.” He highlighted the robust Chinese entrepreneurial and liquidity ecosystems, and emphasized that the real risk of investing in China comes down to time, as the U.S. becomes more restrictive on technology moving to China.

Addressing the question of how investors should navigate the geopolitical headwinds of tense U.S.-China relations, Michael Chu, co-CEO and co-founder of L Catterton, quoted Warren Buffett: “Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful.” 

“If you believe in the long-term secular trends, this is actually the time when people should actually be thinking about how to leg into the market,” Chu said.  

Day 2 gala dinner

150 VIP attendees of the NEXTChina 2022 Conference met and mingled at Cucina 8 ½ to talk through pertinent issues in U.S.-China relations.

After cocktails and conversation in the foyer, guests relocated into the main dining room, where they were welcomed by our founder and chair, Anla Cheng, and CEO Bob Guterma, and then treated to a brief recap of the previous day’s conference.

Right afterward, keynote speaker Stephen Roach sat down with Evercore ISI founder Ed Hyman to discuss the themes of the night. The two titans of Wall Street talked about Roach’s new book, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives, their personal experiences doing business in China, and what was on the docket for the issues of Taiwan and Hong Kong, the latter city being where Stephen Roach spent a good part of his decorated career.

After dinner, the second panel of the night began with The China Project’s CEO, Bob Guterma, sitting down with Winston Ma, former managing director of China Investment Corporation and author of the book Blockchain and Web 3, and Ding Ding, founder of healthcare investment firm Augere Group and rated #1 Healthcare Analyst previously by Institutional Investor.

The trio discussed how the charged atmosphere surrounding China does not necessarily indicate the lack of investment opportunities still very much present. Ma pointed out that while the semiconductor industry was in flux, China’s electric vehicle and renewable energy industries still had potential to evolve. Ding relayed how China’s upcoming healthcare needs will still require new technologies through global cooperation.

Rounding out the night, The China Project bestowed its inaugural NEXTChina Lifetime Achievement Award on Stephen Roach for his lifelong contribution to helping the U.S. better understand China.

Prior to his most recent book, Roach had published two other extremely prescient ones. His first book, from 2009, The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization, analyzed Asia’s economic imbalances and the dangers of the region’s excess.

“I am really very honored to receive this award from you,” Roach said. “The need for calm and knowledgeable voices in this space to counter incendiary rhetoric is stronger than ever, and I am consistently impressed by how The China Project fills that gap.”

The night closed with a performance from two young classical talents — cellist Xinyue Zhu, from Juilliard, and violinist Haoge Wang, the concertmaster of the Juilliard Orchestra for the 2022–2023 season.

The positive reception from attendees reiterated the importance of building and supporting a community of experts on China. The China Project is honored to lead this community. We would like to thank all speakers and participants for joining us, and we are excited to continue the NEXTChina program next year.