Will Shanghai become a swamp?

Dear Access member,

Our word of the day is sea level rise: 海平面上升 hǎi píngmiàn shàngshēng.

Job: The Environmental Investigation Agency, a 501(c)(3) non-profit advocacy organization based in Washington D.C., wants to hire a China trade and policy analyst.

The final frontier: We published an explainer on China’s ambitious space program today. Also: the latest contribution from our science columnist Yangyang Cheng: The holy and the broken in which she reflects on the life of Abdus Salam, the first Muslim scientist to win a Nobel Prize, and his complicated relationship to his home country of Pakistan, China, and the Bomb.

—Jeremy Goldkorn, Editor-in-Chief

A New York Times visualization of new projections of sea level rise from climate change affecting major coastal cities like Shanghai. 

1. Rising sea levels to turn Shanghai into a swamp — study 

A new study on sea level rise due to climate change was published yesterday in the journal Nature Communications. It has major implications for Chinese coastal cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou. The study is titled New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. 

The study measured land elevation from satellite data using a method that the authors claim is far more accurate than previous methods, which “struggle to differentiate the true ground level from the tops of trees or buildings,” Scott Kulp, a researcher at Climate Central and one of the paper’s authors, told the New York Times (porous paywall). 

Comparing the true elevation data to the populations of coastal cities and consensus estimates of sea level rise (from 0.5 to as much as 2 meters by the end of the century), the authors found that the number of people vulnerable to sea level rise is tens of millions higher than previously thought. China is one of the countries worst affected:

• Approximately 43 million to 57 million people in China currently live on land that will be underwater by the end of the 21st century, according to models in the paper.

• China alone accounts for 15 to 28 percent of the world’s total populated land that will likely be under sea level. 

• This is largely because the Yangtze River Delta, where Shanghai is located, and the Pearl River Delta, where Guangzhou and other cities are located, have high concentrations of people in low-lying land. 

• Besides mass relocations of people, there are defensive measures like levies that will have to be built to deal with this problem in the long term. Per the NYT:

The findings don’t have to spell the end of those areas. The new data shows that 110 million people already live in places that are below the high tide line, which [Benjamin Strauss, a paper coauthor] attributes to protective measures like seawalls and other barriers. Cities must invest vastly greater sums in such defenses, Mr. Strauss said, and they must do it quickly.

But even if that investment happens, defensive measures can go only so far. Mr. Strauss offered the example of New Orleans, a city below sea level that was devastated in 2005 when its extensive levees and other protections failed during Hurricane Katrina. “How deep a bowl do we want to live in?” he asked.

—Lucas Niewenhuis

2. Dueling statements on Xinjiang at the UN 

The Associated Press reports: 

China and the West clashed at the U.N. human rights committee Tuesday over claims that Beijing systematically oppresses ethnic minority Muslims in far western Xinjiang province.

Belarus read a statement on behalf of 54 countries commending “China’s remarkable achievements in the field of human rights” and taking note “that terrorism, separatism and religious extremism has caused enormous damage to people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang, which has seriously infringed upon human rights, including right to life, health and development.”

Britain read a statement on behalf of 23 countries that shared concerns with the Committee for the Elimination of Racial Discrimination about “credible reports” of mass detention, “efforts to restrict cultural and religious practices, mass surveillance disproportionately targeting ethnic Uighurs, and other human rights violations and abuses in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.”

China issued a rather mild rebuke to the U.S. Reuters reports that China’s UN ambassador warned that “U.S. criticism at the world body of Beijing’s policy in remote Xinjiang was not ‘helpful’ for negotiations between the two countries on a trade deal.”

Back in Beijing, the Chinese foreign ministry condemned Australia with more vigor for remarks by that country’s foreign affairs minister, Marise Payne, that China must be held to account for human rights abuses. Per the Global Times, Beijing seems particularly annoyed that she brought up Xinjiang.

Related stories:

“At least 150 people have died over the course of six months while detained at an internment camp for mainly ethnic Uyghurs in northwest China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), according to an official source, marking the first confirmation of mass deaths since the camps were introduced in 2017,” reports Radio Free Asia. 

The Chinese foreign ministry “strongly urged the United States to stop using Tibet-related issues to interfere in China’s internal affairs,” according to Xinhua News Agency. This came after Sam Brownback, the U.S. ambassador at large for international religious freedom, recently met the Dalai Lama in India.   

“This fall will be remembered in Kazakhstan for a wave of anti-China protests there. Kazakhstan’s increasing debt to China, the growing presence of Chinese enterprises and goods, the inevitable scheme of trading oil for technology, and the persecution of Muslim Uighurs in neighboring Xinjiang are serving to strengthen Kazakh society’s fear of Chinese expansion,” according to the Carnegie Moscow Center. 

3. Chile meetings canceled as trade deal doubts persist

“Chile has canceled a pair of major global summits on the economy and environment in the coming weeks amid unrest in Santiago, scrambling President Trump’s hopes of signing a first-step trade deal with China at one of the events,” reports the Washington Post.

It’s not even certain a deal would have been signed. “U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that Beijing commit to big purchases of American farm products has become a major sticking point in talks to end the Sino-U.S. trade war, according to several people briefed on the negotiations,” reports Reuters.

Other news of the U.S.-China techno-trade war, day 482:

The Eastman Philharmonia, a group of more than 80 student musicians at the Eastman School of Music in Rochester, New York, “canceled a planned tour of China after three South Korean members of the orchestra were unable to obtain visas, apparently in retaliation for South Korea agreeing in 2016 to deploy an American missile defense system,” reports the New York Times (porous paywall).

“The world’s largest online shopping event may be in the grips of a nationalistic fervor, as three in four Chinese consumers say they will avoid U.S. labels, opting for local brands,” during the ecommerce promotion of Singles’ Day on November 11, according to the South China Morning Post.  

A recording of a former American official who now lobbies for Chinese AI firm Hikvision “provides a rare glimpse into what former U.S. elected officials say behind closed doors when they choose to lobby for foreign entities after leaving office,” says Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian in the Washington Post: David “Vitter’s comments reveal a stark about-face from some of the positions he championed while in office.”

4. Should a 13-year-old boy get the death sentence for killing a 10-year-old girl? 

A 13-year-old boy in Dalian, Liaoning Province, has been sent to a juvenile correctional facility for a three-year term — the maximum allowed under Chinese law — after sexually assaulting and killing a 10-year-old girl last week. 

The victim’s parents were interviewed (in Chinese) by the Huashang Daily, and said that they had hired a lawyer and rejected a settlement offer suggested by Cai’s family, who have avoided meeting them, and have never delivered an apology for Cai’s crime. “We have no desire for money. All we want is the death penalty for Cai,” the girl’s uncle told the publication.

That’s a sentiment shared by many internet users, who argue (in Chinese) that Cai should be held accountable for his conduct because he had the ability to understand that murder was morally wrong. But much to their chagrin, Dalian’s Public Security Bureau announced on October 24 that Cai would not face criminal charges because existing Chinese law stipulates that minors under 14 are not held to be criminally responsible. Instead, Cai would spend the next three years in enforced rehabilitation, which was the harshest punishment allowed by the justice system.

For more on this story, please click through to The China Project.   

5. Fear and loathing — anti-mainlander sentiment in Hong Kong

As anti-government protests simmer in Hong Kong, some demonstrators are increasingly focusing their anger on mainland Chinese in the city, hurling abuse and, in some cases, beating them, according to Reuters via CNA:

More than one million mainland Chinese live and work in Hong Kong, according to official figures, many of them in the city’s bustling finance industry that serves as an entry point into China for global investors. Some of these mainlanders say they are looking to relocate while others say they dare not go out at the weekends, when the protests regularly escalate.

Put another way, “South Asians and Africans are no longer Hong Kong’s ‘ethnic other’ – now it’s the mainland Chinese,” according to Gordon Mathews, chair of the Department of Anthropology at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

If you’re following the protests closely, you might want to sign up for new daily newsletter about the protests in Hong Kong from a resident American scholar: Rubber Bullets and Resistance. Today’s issue is: Joshua Wong and Carrie Lam, protest updates, and HK’s press rebels. 

Other news from Hong Kong:

“The central government on Wednesday expressed support for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) decision to disqualify Joshua Wong [黃之鋒 Huáng Zhīfēng], the leader of a political group advocating ‘Hong Kong independence,’ from the 2019 District Council Ordinary Election of the HKSAR,” according to Xinhua. As we noted yesterday, Wong is not actually advocating for independence.  

“Masked protester or trick-or-treater? Hong Kong’s police may soon have to spot the difference to enforce a recent ban on face masks intended to end months of civil unrest,” says the South China Morning Post. 

“A charity fund of Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing [李嘉诚 Lǐ Jiāchéng] will donate HK$200 million ($25.5 million) to help local small and medium restaurants,” reports Caixin. 

—Jeremy Goldkorn

BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY:

• A fake on-demand bike company that lets you use real bikes
  A fake bike-sharing app in China is costing the real ones 300 million yuan / PingWest
  According to a Chinese media report, police recently raided the office of Qnche.cn (全能车 quánnéng chē; “all-powerful vehicle”), “a fake bike sharing company [that] doesn’t operate a single bike.”

Its app attracts users by having the ability to unlock nearly all bikes from other existing platforms, including the Mobike and the now-defunct Ofo. The problem, however, was that Quannengche did so without the knowledge and consent of the other companies whose bikes it unlocks. 

Instead, it first breaches the servers of other bike sharing companies, retrieves key info on their existing subscribers, then intercepts the data transmission when its own users are unlocking bikes, and add those stolen info into the data package to trick the servers into believing that the user unlocking the bikes are legitimate, when in fact they’re most likely not.

• Face payments
  Pay with your face: 100 million Chinese switch from smartphones / Nikkei Asian Review (porous paywall) 

At stores, shoppers are increasingly purchasing goods with just a turn of their heads, while commuters “pay with their face” at subway stations…

The Seven-Eleven convenience store chain introduced facial payment technology in May for its stores, mainly in southern parts of China including Guangdong Province. Some 1,000 Seven-Eleven outlets already use the system, which allows customers to make purchases only by having their faces scanned by point-of-sale tablets.

• Ctrip becomes Trip
  Ctrip formalizes name change as it eyes global expansion / Caixin Live
  China’s leading online travel operator, Ctrip, will officially change its name from “Ctrip.com International, Ltd.” to “Trip.com Group Ltd.” Its ticker will be changed from “CTRP” to “TCOM.” 

• Capital controls and trade war squeeze Chinese-invested real estate in U.S.
  L.A.’s $1 billion trophy tower halted as China pulls back / Bloomberg (porous paywall)

Construction has largely stalled at the three towers of Oceanwide Plaza across from Staples Center where the NBA’s Lakers and Clippers and the NHL’s Kings play their home games…

The developer, Beijing-based Oceanwide Holdings Co., offered few details on the future of the $1 billion-plus project — other than to insist that it has financing and work is continuing. The lawsuits by unpaid subcontractors, on the other hand, give a glimpse of the developer’s struggle to come up with needed money to finish the project.

• Australian wine exports to China up 18 percent
  China finds solace in wine from Australia amid economic slowdown / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
  “The value of wine exports to China jumped 18 percent to a record A$1.25 billion ($858 million) for the year ended in September, Wine Australia said Wednesday.”

• A million counterfeit toys in Shanghai
  One million fake toys and figures seized in China / Kotaku 

Shanghai police have seized one million fake toys after raiding a factory in the city of Dongguan. According to Chinese site The Paper, included among the fakes were Pokémon, Dragon Ball, One Piece and Gundam items.

The massive raid took place this past August and netted over 1,200 toy-making tools and equipment. China News reports that in total the goods are worth over $42 million dollars. Over twenty suspects were arrested.

• Will Chinese people stop saving?
  Less savings, more debt: How Chinese manage money American-style, in 17 charts / WSJ (paywall)
  “Household thrift in China is eroding, weakened by borrowing to buy real estate and enhance lifestyles, generational shift that will ripple through the world economy.”

• Artificial intelligence
  AI policy and China — realities of state-led development / Stanford-New America Digichina Project
  A special report on AI policy and China, “featuring new work and insights from 14 specialists across a wide variety of fields.”
  Tough U.S. immigration policy could be the key to China winning technology race, says top AI investor / SCMP

• Debt contagion?
  China steelmaker default sparks debt contagion fear / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
  “Shandong-based steelmaker Xiwang Group Co.’s failure to repay 1 billion yuan ($142 million) of bonds last week, saw investors dump neighboring firms’ notes on contagion fears as companies in this province are well known for providing guarantees for each other’s debt.”
  Chinese authorities seek to reassure over small bank’s health / WSJ (paywall)
  Henan Yichuan Rural Commercial Bank “became the latest lender to spark concern as authorities were forced Wednesday to assure the safety of its deposits following a flurry of withdrawals.”
  China sends top financial officials to clean up debt-laden provinces amid growing signs of economic risk / SCMP
  China’s central government has dispatched senior state bankers and financial regulators to at least 15 of the country’s 31 provincial-level governments to work as vice-governors over the past two years, as Beijing looks to shore up debt-laden local economies.
  China police detain woman for spreading rumors on rural bank’s bankruptcy / Reuters 

• Xiaomi, Meituan, and the Hong Kong stock connect
  Mainland stock buyers finally get a taste of Xiaomi, Meituan / Caixin

Two of China’s biggest high-tech names, smartphone-maker Xiaomi and on-demand services platform Meituan Dianping, are finally available to stock buyers on the Chinese mainland. On Saturday the pair were officially included in a stock connect scheme that makes Hong Kong-traded stocks available to mainland-based investors, according to a statement [in Chinese] on Shenzhen Stock Exchange website. 

• Huawei phones selling like hotcakes in China
  Huawei tightens China market hold with 42 percent share at expense of iPhones: Canalys / Reuters
  “Huawei Technologies captured a record 42 percent of China’s smartphone market in the third quarter as local consumers rallied behind it after U.S. sanctions, leaving Apple to languish towards the bottom of the pile.”

• Foreign companies no longer desirable employers?
  Why more Chinese millennials don’t want to work for multinationals / WSJ (paywall)
  “China’s millennials are turning their backs on careers with multinationals, which they increasingly see as bureaucratic and overly reliant on global models that simply do not work in China.”

SCIENCE, HEALTH, AND THE ENVIRONMENT: 

• Plastic bags in Hong Kong
  Hong Kong government may charge consumers for using plastic bags to carry frozen goods and fresh bakery items, environment minister says / SCMP
  “‘Flat-top’ bags are currently given for free to maintain food hygiene or unpackaged fresh produce and frozen or refrigerated items.” 

POLITICS AND CURRENT AFFAIRS:

• Belgian Confucius Institute professor denies spying, but persona non grata in Schengen Area
  Chinese professor accused of spying by Belgium, barred from entering Schengen Area / SCMP

A Chinese professor who headed a Confucius Institute in Brussels has been barred from entering the Schengen Area for eight years after being accused of espionage, amid growing scrutiny of the Beijing-run cultural offices that have been established at universities around the world.

Sòng Xīnníng 宋新宁, former director of the institute at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), said he had been accused by authorities in Belgium of supporting Chinese intelligence activities in the city — an accusation he denied.

The Schengen Area comprises 26 European countries that have abolished passport and other types of controls at their mutual borders.

• Beijing: Canada’s still our friend
  Beijing says Canadian military participation at Chinese sports competition more proof it’s not losing global support / Globe and Mail
  Guy Saint-Jacques, former Canadian ambassador to China, said he was “surprised” Canada had sent soldiers to the just-concluded Military World Games (from which a Chinese team was disqualified for cheating), while “Beijing’s embassy in Canada says the fact the Canadian military just sent a ‘big delegation’ to a sporting competition in China is more evidence the Asian power is not losing friends.”

• Huawei’s troubles in Germany
  German spy chief says Huawei can’t be fully trusted’ in 5G / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
  Germany’s spy chief said Huawei Technologies Co. “can’t fully be trusted,” signaling security hardliners in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government want to keep the Chinese technology giant out of the country’s fifth-generation networks. 
  Berlin hardliners suspect Merkel soft on Huawei to please China / Bloomberg (porous paywall)

• Indian and U.S. navies get cosy
  ‘China may deploy aircraft carrier in Indian ocean’: U.S. navy commander / Hindustan Times
  “Admiral John Aquilino, who is in India, met Navy chief Admiral Karambir Singh and other senior defense officials. He said he and Singh discussed ways to enhance cooperation and increase information-sharing and better integration between the two navies.”

• The fallout from Prague’s attitude to Beijing
  Czech-Chinese ties strained as Prague stands up to Beijing / NPR
  The city of Prague’s uncompromising stance against Beijing in recent years is causing discomfort for some in the Czech Republic. 

• Beijing interference in Taiwan elections
  Taiwan charges pro-Beijing politicians with accepting funds from Chinese mainland / SCMP

Two pro-Beijing politicians in Taiwan have been charged with accepting funds from the Chinese mainland. Observers said the decision to charge the pair, from the Chinese Democratic Progressive Party, reflected the authorities’ determination to counter alleged inference in the island’s political process ahead of the presidential election in January.

• People behind the banned Malaysian comic book
  Malaysian finance minister admits writing foreword for banned pro-China comic / SCMP
  “Malaysian Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng [林冠英 Lín Guānyīng] has chosen to remain tight-lipped over the foreword that he penned in the controversial and now-banned pro-China comic book, Belt & Road Initiative for Win-Winism.”
  Malaysia banned the comic after a controversy because it “suggested that Malays who supported China’s Muslim Uygurs were radicals.”

SOCIETY AND CULTURE:

• Author Sānmáo
  Overlooked no more: Sanmao, ‘wandering writer’ who found her voice in the desert / NYT (porous paywall)
  “Her book, Stories of the Sahara, has endured for generations of young Taiwanese and Chinese women yearning for independence from conservative social norms.”

• Sexual harassment at universities
  Chinese universities told to improve policies to tackle sexual harassment / SCMP

China’s education ministry has urged universities to improve the way they handle allegations of sexual harassment, such as special committees to tackle the problem, according to state media reports.

Since the #MeToo feminist movement gained global momentum, several high-profile cases of sexual harassment and assault have come to light in China.

• See also: China’s #MeToo movement, explained on The China Project. 

SUPCHINA SIGNAL

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China’s space program is taking off

In 2018, China conducted 39 orbital launches, more than any other country in the world. However, China has a long march ahead to catch up with the U.S., as Chinese official space exploration only began in earnest around the turn of the 21st century.

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The Holy and the Broken

“Salam: the First ****** Nobel Laureate” is a documentary currently available on Netflix that looks at the life of Abdus Salam, the first Muslim scientist to win a Nobel Prize. In learning about his story — which included multiple visits to China, and a complicated relationship with his home country of Pakistan — Yangyang Cheng reflects on her own. When science is primarily funded by the state, what is a scientist’s civic duty — to the profession, to one’s country, and to fundamental values?