Why Xi changed his rocket men

Two missing generals who had commanded China’s missile forces have been replaced, fanning suspicions of the largest purge at the top echelons of the country’s military in a decade.

• General Lǐ Yùchāo 李玉超, who headed the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), and his deputy General Liú Guāngbīn 刘光斌 had disappeared from public view several months ago.
• State media reported yesterday that Wáng Hòubīn 王厚斌, deputy commander of the PLA Navy since 2020, will take Li’s position, while air force officer and party central committee member Xú Xīshèng 徐西盛 will become the Rocket Force’s new political commissar.

Why do analysts believe there has been a purge? What does it mean for the readiness of China’s missile forces? Neil Thomas, Fellow for Chinese Politics at Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, answered our questions — click through for his informed commentary.

Jeremy Goldkorn and Nadya Yeh

The death toll in Beijing rose to 11 people with 27 still missing, as the Chinese capital recorded its heaviest rainfall in more than 70 years in the remnants of Typhoon Doksuri. Chinese leader Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 has called for all-out rescue efforts to combat the heavy downpours and floods that have affected more than 44,000 people and led around 127,000 to be evacuated.

Helicopters have been dispatched to help transport the injured and drop off food, water, and other emergency supplies to those trapped in trains or surrounding mountainous areas that have been cut off. Footage posted online shows roads that have turned into rivers and cars swept away by the force of the currents, while hundreds of flights have been grounded in both of the city’s major airports.

The extreme rainfall has exceeded records from a severe storm in July 2012, which killed 79 people in the city and was described at the time by local authorities as the worst since records began in 1951.

Beijing beefed up its anti-espionage law earlier this year, and is now following up with a campaign to mobilize the entire country with a system that makes it “normal” for the masses to participate in counter-espionage must be established, according to the Ministry of State Security, which is also promoting a hotline to report on would-be spies with posters in supermarkets.

China has invested $25.4 billion in Pakistan over the past decade for projects ranging from roads to power plants, Chinese Vice Premier Hé Lìfēng 何立峰 said yesterday alongside Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. He is currently on a three-day visit to Islamabad to mark the 10th anniversary of the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region.

The two sides signed six important documents to expand cooperation, as well as a memorandum of understanding including the promotion of the Main Line-1 (ML-1), the 1,163-mile railway upgrade project under CPEC that will carry high-speed trains from Karachi to Peshawar.

Public opinion about China is mostly negative across 24 countries, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. About 67% of adults hold unfavorable views of the country, compared to 28% with a favorable opinion. Those with unfavorable views are predominantly located in high-income countries in North America, Western Europe, and parts of the Asia-Pacific region, as has been the case for multiple years.

But people view China more favorably in middle-income countries: A majority in Kenya, Mexico, and Nigeria gave China a positive rating, particularly regarding the economic benefits from their relations with the world’s second largest economy.

The closure of a mosque in Shadian, a small town that’s now a suburb of Gejiu city in southwestern Yunnan Province, has confirmed deep-rooted fears among locals of Beijing’s growing campaign to demolish or partially demolish Islamic sites throughout China.

Beijing’s crackdown on Islam hits home for locals in the town: In 1975, Shadian became the target of a massacre led by the People’s Liberation Army that killed around 1,600 locals in response to protests against the religious destruction of the Cultural Revolution. “On the issue of the mosque’s minarets and the dome,” one Shadian resident told The China Project in May, “we want the authorities to understand that it is such similar policies that caused the Shadian Incident.”

Chinese state media: Xinhua News Agency’s top Chinese-language story today is titled “Xi Jinping gives important instructions on flood prevention and disaster relief work” rendered in English as Xi orders all-out rescue of people missing, trapped in floods, geological disasters.

The print edition of Party paper People’s Daily today highlights the promotion of the new generals of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force.

Last month, a draft of the “People’s Republic of China Patriotic Education Law” was introduced to the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, China’s top legislative body. The new law codifies existing practices, but more importantly it expands its scope to include Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, overseas Chinese, and the internet.

• The draft indicates what the Party feels are its biggest vulnerabilities for the future control of China: the youth, cyberspace, and Chinese communities beyond the mainland.
• As state news agency Xinhua put it, “while stipulating that all citizens should undertake patriotic education, the draft highlights the education of children and young people.”

For a generation, young Chinese have been characterized as increasingly nationalistic. But just as in the post-Tiananmen years, many are again regarded as the biggest threat to the Party’s legitimacy. They have been at the forefront of protests and dissent, as seen in last year’s demonstrations against China’s zero-COVID policy.

• Article 14 emphasizes the integration of patriotic education content to “all levels and types of school” and “the entire course of school education” — a continuation of the earlier campaign.
• What is new about the draft law is Article 16, which summons parents and guardians to take on the responsibility of patriotic education of their children at home.

Kathy Huang and Kay Zou of the Council on Foreign Relations have this analysis for The China Project.

Kathy Huang

Taiwan and the Solomon Islands had been allies for 30 years, but the P.R.C. was the Solomon Islands’s dominant economic partner for much of that time. That partly explains the reason Solomon Islands switched its diplomatic relations to Beijing in 2019.

• Taiwanese aid had been tailing off in the run-up to 2019, and it was nothing compared to the P.R.C. money Solomon Islands (and its officials) now have access to.
• The key to the islands for both Taiwan and the P.R.C. is the nation’s Constituent Development Funds (CDFs): pots of money assigned to each Member of Parliament to develop their area. These are much larger than international equivalents, with much less oversight.

The island chain of 700,000 people has been in the news lately thanks to a number of pacts it’s signed with China, the most controversial of which is a police cooperation deal.

• Solomon Islands has also signed up to the Belt and Road Initiative.
• The P.R.C.’s presence on the island over the past two decades — a “mad dash,” the New York Times called it — has led to resentment. A protest by democracy activists in 2021 led to riots in Honiara’s Chinatown, leaving three dead.

Click here to read details in Alex Colville’s latest China Ties column.

Alex Colville

A look at Hong Kong’s Yau Ma Tei market: A rumor making its way around the internet claims that the historic Yau Ma Tei fruit market, Hong Kong’s largest, used to be run by the local crime syndicates known as triads. Nowadays, although the triads may mostly be gone, their freewheeling ethos remains.

Below are links from our NewsBase to other noteworthy reports published in the last 24 hours from and about China.

BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY:

Private businesses
Skepticism prevails as Chinese leaders promise to back private businesses to spur slowing economy / AP
“Entrepreneurs and investors are waiting to see what tax, spending or other steps the ruling party might take — and whether it will rein in state companies that dominate banking, energy and other industries that economists say are stifling growth.”
Opinion: Measures to boost the economy show China still has love for its private sector / SCMP (paywall)
Edward Tse writes: “New measures to boost growth in the private sector announced by the Chinese government on July 14 have received a mixed reaction from privately owned firms. Some are suspicious of the policy’s intent, some are in a wait-and-see mode and others are positive.”

U.S.-China tech war
Tech cold war: South Korea pivots from China to U.S. / FT (paywall)
“Washington is courting chipmakers and battery manufacturers with large subsidies but demanding they loosen ties with their other major market.”

Private space companies in China
Race is on to become China’s SpaceX / Caixin (paywall)
“The market is eagerly seeking a Chinese answer to Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Since 2015, a group of aerospace scientists who previously worked for state-owned companies embarked on entrepreneurial ventures, aiming to catch up with SpaceX. For China’s private aerospace industry, 2023 is a turning point.”

Semiconductors
China gallium, germanium export curbs kick in; wait for permits starts / Reuters
“China’s export controls on some gallium and germanium products take effect on Tuesday, with traders braced for a drop in international supply in August and September while exporters sort out newly required permits.”
China tightens export restrictions on two chipmaking materials / Nikkei Asia (paywall)

Yuan stability
China asks some banks to reduce or delay dollar buying — sources / Reuters
“China’s currency regulators are asking some commercial banks to reduce or postpone their purchases of U.S. dollars in order to slow the yuan’s depreciation, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.”

Development and real estate
China’s property problems appear poised to improve, but can ‘much more risky’ real estate still drive economic growth? / SCMP (paywall)
“Beijing vows restrictive property policies will be further relaxed, but investors do not seem to have the same speculative mentality they used to.”
Chinese developer’s canceled share placement fuels property sector woes / FT (paywall)
“One of China’s biggest property developers has abruptly abandoned a share placement, sending its stock down as much as 10 per cent on Tuesday and renewing concerns about the troubled real estate sector.”

Nuclear power
China adds to world leading nuclear expansion with six new reactors / Caixin (paywall)
“China’s State Council approved six new nuclear reactors as it continues to expand the world’s biggest pipeline of new atomic energy projects.”

Chinese factories are struggling
The factories on the front line of China’s economic slowdown / FT (paywall)
“From slowing global demand to rising geopolitical tensions and a tentative post-Covid recovery, China’s manufacturers are facing some of the strongest headwinds in years.”
China’s factory activity shrinks for first time in three months as recovery falters, Caixin PMI shows / Caixin (paywall)
“Activity in China’s manufacturing sector shrank in July following sluggish expansion in the previous two months as output and new orders weakened, adding to evidence the country’s economic recovery is faltering, a Caixin-sponsored survey showed Tuesday.”

U.S. firms in China
Business confidence for U.S. firms in China drops to 3-year low / Nikkei Asia (paywall)
“The confidence of U.S. companies in China fell to a three-year low despite a majority reporting a full or partial recovery of their business operations in the country, according to a report released on Tuesday.”

Beijing’s hunt for strategic minerals
China’s overseas investment in metals and mining set to hit record / FT (paywall)
“China’s metals and mining investments overseas are on track to hit a record this year, new data shows, as the country races to secure resources to defend its position as the world’s biggest producer of electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels and wind turbines.”

A revival for China’s big tech?
China’s Big Tech companies revive expansion plans after Beijing vows to give the green light on more deals, ends regulatory crackdown / SCMP (paywall)
“China’s Big Tech companies are ramping up plans for potential new acquisitions and accelerating recruitment initiatives after a wave of lay-offs last year, as Beijing’s pledge to give the green light on more technology deals and the end of a 32-month regulatory crackdown have put the industry back in expansion mode.”

SCIENCE, HEALTH, AND ENVIRONMENT:

Solar industry and human rights
Solar supply chain grows more opaque amid human rights concerns / NYT (paywall)
“The global industry is cutting some ties to China, but its exposure to forced labor remains high and companies are less transparent, a new report found.”

Extreme weather
Beijing, northern China boost rescue efforts after worst storm in years / Reuters
“Beijing and nearby cities stepped up rescue efforts on Tuesday after rains and floods brought by remnants of Typhoon Doksuri disrupted services and food supplies and claimed 20 lives in one of the worst storms to hit northern China in over a decade.”
At least 20 dead across Beijing and nearby Hebei as Tropical Storm Doksuri brings heaviest rain in 70 years / SCMP (paywall)
Beijing area hit by deadliest flooding in a decade / WSJ (paywall)
Floods in North China claim 20 lives as torrential rain cuts power, communications / Caixin (paywall)
Extreme floods hit Beijing, 11 dead, residents cut off / Sixth Tone
Another powerful cyclone threatens Japan and China / NYT (paywall)
“Typhoon Khanun was barreling through the Pacific days after an earlier tropical cyclone, Doksuri, brought death and destruction to the region.”

POLITICS AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS:

Counter-espionage campaign
China wants to mobilize entire nation in counter-espionage / Reuters
“China should encourage its citizens to join counter-espionage work, including creating channels for individuals to report suspicious activity as well as commending and rewarding them, the state security ministry said on Tuesday.”
China urges public to join ‘grim and complex’ anti-espionage fight as new law takes effect / SCMP (paywall)
“China’s top state security body has called on the public to join the fight against spying and support implementation of the country’s new anti-espionage law.”

Party sets stricter criteria when recruiting new members
Why China’s students now face a longer long march to join the Communist Party / SCMP (paywall)
“As Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 puts his hopes for the future of the party on the younger generation, the focus for party membership has been on quality rather than quantity.”

Corruption
Shanghai lawmaker booted from top legislature following graft probe / Caixin (paywall)
“Shanghai lawmaker Dǒng Yúnhǔ 董云虎 has been removed from his position as a deputy to the National People’s Congress (NPC), the country’s top legislature, after becoming the target of a graft probe.”

China’s internet censor cracks down on “misinformation”
China blocks more than 8,000 social media accounts in latest ‘clean up’ campaign / SCMP (paywall)
“China’s internet censor has blocked more than 8,000 social media accounts it says violated the rights of businesses, including ‘smearing’ the country’s first domestically produced passenger jet.”

Qin Gang and Wang Yi
Wang Yi, the return of China’s tough foreign minister / FT (paywall)
Wáng Yì 王毅 “was reappointed foreign minister after the once high-flying Xi favorite Qin Gang was suddenly removed from his post this week without explanation.”
‘Not found’: China’s ex-foreign minister is gone but wait for explanation goes on / Reuters
“Hours after China’s top legislature convened a special meeting last week to remove foreign minister Qín Gāng 秦刚, photos and mentions of the 57-year-old started disappearing from his former ministry’s website.”

Corruption and modernization of the military
China’s Xi calls for combat readiness as PLA marks founding anniversary / Reuters
“After months of intensified and increasingly ambitious drills to project power, Chinese President Xi Jinping, speaking ahead of Tuesday’s 96th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), told China’s armed forces to speed up modernisation.”
China ousts top generals from nuclear Rocket Force / FT (paywall)
“China’s leader Xi Jinping has replaced the two missing generals who had been in command of the country’s missile forces, in effect confirming the largest purge at the top levels of the military in a decade.”
Xi appoints new chief of China’s nuclear arsenal / Nikkei Asia (paywall)
China appoints new leadership for missile force / Caixin (paywall)
China replaces missile commander days after removing foreign minister / NYT (paywall)
Xi leans on old friends to enforce Party discipline in China’s military / Nikkei Asia (paywall)
“With the centennial of the People’s Liberation Army approaching in 2027, Chinese President Xi Jinping is counting on two allies to help tighten the Communist Party’s control over the military and build up its strength with an eye on a potential unification with Taiwan.”

Taiwan
China complains to U.S. about ‘dangerous’ weapons aid to Taiwan / Reuters
“​​China said on Tuesday it has complained to the United States about a weapons aid package to Taiwan, urging Washington to refrain from going further down a ‘wrong and dangerous’ path.”
Paraguay courts Taiwanese investors, warns against China reliance – finance minister / Reuters
“Paraguay is seeking more Taiwanese investment to diversify its farm-driven economy focused on exporting raw materials to China, incoming Finance Minister Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos said in an interview.”
Taiwan to test less robust eastern defenses with month-long missile drills / SCMP (paywall)
“Taiwan’s military will stage a series of missile drills this month in waters off its eastern coastline to test combat readiness amid growing concerns that Beijing could send forces to attack the island from its less fortified east.”
China’s military speeds preparations to blockade Taiwan / Nikkei Asia (paywall)
“China has greatly increased its conducting of military drills simulating the containment of Taiwan since then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island a year ago. Nikkei analyzed the possibility of China’s invasion of Taiwan, using drone-taken images and views by experts.”

Pakistan
Beijing has invested $25.4B in Pakistan over the last decade, Chinese vice premier says / AP
“China has invested $25.4 billion in Pakistan over the past decade for projects ranging from roads to power plants, China’s vice premier said Monday, as the two countries celebrated the 10th anniversary of the so-called Belt and Road Initiative.”

EU
EU leader cites Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to warn against China’s aggression in Asia / AP
“The leader of the European Union’s executive commission cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to warn against China’s increasingly assertive actions in disputed Indo-Pacific waters and against Taiwan and said Monday that the EU would not tolerate aggression in either region.”

SOCIETY AND CULTURE:

Food
Good news for cold noodle lovers: Authorities relax license requirements / Sixth Tone
“Cold food license requirements are being relaxed for restaurants and food establishments, making it easier for them to serve up popular dishes such as liangpi and salads.”
Dip in spending kicks off price war in China’s fast-food industry / Sixth Tone
“Discounted menus targeting the price-conscious are emerging across the country, leaving small eateries at risk in an increasingly price-sensitive market.”