Links for Friday, January 29, 2021

WORTH THINKING ABOUT

Pieces of news or analysis that caught our eye:

China is lagging behind on vaccine rollout: The Washington Post reports that a “focus on exporting vaccine doses — partly because of their effectiveness as diplomatic currency — could prevent China from achieving herd immunity this year, leaving the country in a more drawn-out battle against virus flare-ups.” 

• See also a Twitter thread by Washington Post reporter Eva Dou, and a graphic produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit, which estimates that the U.S., most of Europe, Hong Kong, and a few other places will get to 60% immunity by late 2021 — but that China might not reach that level of coverage until late 2022. 

Military-civil fusion in China has been the subject of much debate and attention in Washington in recent years — the Trump administration notably kicked out over 1,000 Chinese students based on their alleged links to military institutions — but Beijing’s policy itself is often misunderstood. 

• In “Myths and Realities of China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy,” published by the Center for a New American Security, Elsa B. Kania and Lorand Laskai explain the policy in detail, and comment, “In particular, discussions in the United States on MCF have sometimes mischaracterized it as a fait accompli, instead of recognizing that this strategy has yet to be fully realized.”

Chinese Communist Party resilience in the time of COVID-19 is the subject of the Party Watch Annual Report 2020. The first part of the report is written by political scientist Andrew Nathan, who wrote an influential article in 2003 using the term authoritarian resilience to describe China’s leadership transitions. 

MORE NEWS FROM AROUND THE WORLD

BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY:

• Biden administration delays delistings and investment bans
  U.S. investors won’t be able to trade China telcos from March 9 / Caixin (paywall)
  U.S. delays Chinese investment ban’s impact on certain firms / Reuters
  “The United States on Wednesday updated its ban on investments in certain Chinese military companies by delaying until May the application of the directive’s restrictions on companies with names similar to those that have been blacklisted.”
  Related The China Project reporting: Whiplash on Wall Street after Chinese telecom delistings, Alibaba and Tencent investment ban threat.

• Will Beijing punish HBO for COVID-critical documentary?
  A scathing new documentary from HBO alleges a Chinese coverup on the coronavirus / Washington Post
  “‘In The Same Breath,’ a scathing new documentary by the Oscar-shortlisted filmmaker Nanfu Wang…argues that the alleged suppression led to an untold number of deaths and the virus spreading rapidly, as unaware people kept taking risks…Wang said HBO never suggested any changes for business reasons.”

• Taiwan economy grew nearly 3% in 2020, compared with China’s 2.3%
  Taiwan’s GDP growth outpaces China’s for first time in 30 years / Bloomberg (porous paywall)
  Related The China Project reporting: Takeaways from China’s remarkable economic growth numbers.

• Ballooning debt
  China’s government debt-to-GDP ratio soars as spending booms, revenue shrinks / Caixin (paywall)
  “The ratio rose to 45.8% in 2020 from 38.5% the previous year, official data show, increasing for the third year in a row.”

• HNA still in trouble, but details are murky
  HNA Group moves toward bankruptcy under mountain of debt / Caixin (paywall)
  “Several people told Caixin that the financing tools such as trust lending and short-term notes used to fuel its rapid expansion make it hard to gauge HNA’s actual financial situation, and the company’s asset values could also be inflated by those financing tools.”

• Ford launches China-built Mustang with confusing ad campaign
  Ford adds made in China label to the Mustang / WSJ (paywall)
  Ford gets hammered for culturally confused ad campaign putting the horse in front of the ox / Caixin
  “In an attempt to connect with Chinese consumers Ford’s publicity material and campaign has focused on the image and idea of the horse, which is the Chinese astrological animal associated with the year 2026. The country is set to celebrate the start of the Year of the Ox on 11. Feb.”

SCIENCE, HEALTH, AND THE ENVIRONMENT: 

• Vaccine diplomacy
  Hungary signs deal for Chinese Sinopharm’s COVID-19 vaccine, first in EU / Reuters

• WHO visit to Wuhan
  WHO team in Wuhan visits hospital that treated early COVID cases / Reuters

• Water pollution
  Northwest China reports thallium pollution in Yangtze tributary / Sixth Tone

• Animal farm regulations
  Inside China’s massive crackdown on wild animal farms / Sixth Tone
  China’s new animal health rules alone won’t stop zoonotic outbreaks, experts warn / Guardian

POLITICS AND CURRENT AFFAIRS:

• U.S.-China relations
  Pentagon spokesman dismisses China’s warning on Taiwan as ‘unfortunate’ / SCMP
  ‘Taiwan independence’ means war not empty threat: Global Times editorial / Global Times
  Chinese warplanes simulated attacking U.S. carrier near Taiwan / FT (paywall)
  “Chinese military aircraft simulated missile attacks on a nearby US aircraft carrier during an incursion into Taiwan’s air defence zone three days after Joe Biden’s inauguration, according to intelligence from the U.S. and its allies.”
  U.S. must be prepared to impose costs on China — Biden security adviser / Reuters
  White House says U.S.-China trade deal among issues in broad review / Reuters
  U.S. and China may meet at Singapore’s ‘Davos’, WEF says / Reuters
  “United States President Joe Biden’s new administration may hold meetings with Chinese counterparts at a World Economic Forum meeting in Singapore in May, the organization’s president said on Friday.”
  Davos highlights: Singapore’s prime minister urges US and China to defuse tensions / FT (paywall)

• Tibetan and Mongolian language education
  China frees Tashi Wangchuk, Tibetan who fought for language rights / NYT (porous paywall)
  China signals roll-back on minority languages / Human Rights Watch
  Maya Wang writes that Wangchuk is “not only…unlikely to be allowed to resume his advocacy work, but Chinese authorities have just taken additional steps to undermine efforts in China to preserve mother-tongue education.”

• More details on surveillance of Uyghurs
  Surveillance of Uyghurs detailed in Chinese police database / The Intercept

• Unusual execution for corruption
  Former top banker executed for taking $277 million in bribes / Caixin (paywall, or see Reuters summary)
  Related The China Project reporting: China gives death penalty to former senior banking regulator for corruption.

• Beijing tightens its grip on Hong Kong
  China boosts cadres in Hong Kong by 100, as Beijing tightens supervision of city, media report / Reuters
  Jailed Hong Kong activist Joshua Wong pleads guilty to taking part in 2019 unauthorized assembly / HKFP
  Beijing replaces half of liaison office positions in mass consolidation of power: report / Apple Daily

• Germany sees China as both partner and rival
  Germany seeks role in shaping Indo-Pacific order: foreign minister / Nikkei Asia (paywall)

• South China Sea
  Philippines protests China’s quasi-militarization of coast guard / Nikkei Asia (paywall, or see AP summary)
  China asks Indonesia to treat detained sailors fairly / AP
  Chinese submariners patrolling South China Sea suffer ‘serious’ psych problems, study finds / Stars and Stripes
  “A fifth of sailors assigned to Chinese submarines patrolling the South China Sea have experienced some degree of mental health problems, according to a study published this month.”

• Commentary on Asian geopolitics
  Free not to choose – In its rivalry with China, America should not make Asians pick sides / Economist
  Why attempts to build a new anti-China alliance will fail / Foreign Policy
  Kishore Mahbubani on the Quad: “The big strategic game in Asia isn’t military but economic.”

• India-China border standoff
  India has sent more troops to disputed China border, President Ram Nath Kovind says / SCMP
  China responds to India’s Foreign Minister’s proposal, and a reality check on India China growth comparisons / The India China Newsletter

• Dozens jailed for Twitter posts
  China is now sending Twitter users to prison for posts most Chinese can’t see / WSJ (paywall)
  “More than 50 people have been jailed in past three years in an escalation of Communist Party assault on use of foreign social media.”

SOCIETY AND CULTURE:

• Education Ministry thinks China has a “masculinity crisis”
  China wants to mitigate male ‘feminization’ with more gym class / Sixth Tone

• A Chinese photographer in Iceland
  Icelandic memoirs / Neocha
  “Born and raised in Guilin, a Chinese city renowned for its own breathtaking mountains and lakes, [Li Yiwei] has long believed that urban life is a deviation from the norm. She believes cities have severed mankind’s connection with the natural world and sees Iceland as a place where that connection can be rekindled.”

• Equality in relationships
  The Chinese couples going dutch on literally everything / Sixth Tone
  “Young Chinese are ditching tradition and adopting an egalitarian style of relationship known as the ‘two-sided marriage.’ But is the practice really as progressive as it appears?”