A very unstable new baseline — Editor’s note for Friday, August 5, 2022

Dear reader,

The latest news from the global spat caused by United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s brief visit to Taiwan: Beijing today announced the cancellation of three military-to-military dialogues with the U.S., and the suspension of five other talks, including discussions on transnational crimes and climate change. Pelosi and her family have also been targeted with personal business sanctions.

In Washington, D.C., Chinese Ambassador Qín Gāng 秦刚 was summoned “to the White House to démarche him about the PRC’s provocative actions.”

We’ve reached what former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Evan Feigenbaum called “a very unstable new baseline.” If you’ve lost track of events, this is what happened earlier in the week, as seen through our reporting and interviews:

Monday, August 1

• Media reports confirmed that Pelosi would indeed visit Taiwan.

Tuesday, August 2

• Nancy Pelosi touches down in Taiwan
  The most-tracked live flight in the world landed at a Taipei airport.
• On video: Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund talked to Lizzi Lee about the Pelosi visit and gave an excellent summary of the context and possible outcomes of the visit.

Wednesday, August 3

• Pelosi’s day in Taiwan shakes up the world
  Pelosi concluded a short trip to Taiwan, where she met the president and other officials as well as a group of rights activists, and infuriated the Chinese Communist Party.
• Weibo reacts to Pelosi’s Taiwan visit: ‘No quarantine for the old witch?’
  “All wars cost heaps of money and many lives. But at the same time, it’s so humiliating to let the U.S. keep testing our red lines. What a dilemma!”
• On video: David Sacks, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, talks to Lizzi Lee about whether Pelosi’s visit changes China’s timetable for reunification.

Thursday, August 4

• China begins military drills around Taiwan
  Beijing fired off ballistic missiles in the waters surrounding the island and promised days of live-fire military tests and drills.
• Are we facing another crisis in the Taiwan Strait?
  A Sinica Podcast with John Culver, former national intelligence officer for East Asia and CIA analyst focusing on China (link above is audio; here is the transcript).

Our phrase of the week is: Those who play with fire perish by it (玩火自焚 wánhuǒ zìfén). Click through to our website for details, and to learn about other bloody metaphors that Beijing is using to warn and scold the U.S. and Taiwan.