Editor’s note for Monday, October 3, 2022

My thoughts today:

One of the most frequently-asked questions about China that I have heard this year is: “Will China invade Taiwan?”

Here’s one answer from a very well-informed source: Veteran CIA analyst John Culver says that “any invasion of Taiwan will not be secret for months prior to Beijing’s initiation of hostilities,” and that there are none of the signs that show any such plans for the next several years.

Culver was a recent guest on the Sinica Podcast.

What’s next for the ever-worsening U.S.-China relationship? Join us at the NEXTChina Conference 2022 on November 9 and 10 virtually and face to face in New York City with some of the biggest names in U.S.-China matters. Enjoy our Early Bird special — 50% off on tickets and tables — by securing your seat before October 16.

Our word of the day is out of court settlement (庭外和解 tíngwài héjiě).

—Jeremy Goldkorn, Editor-in-Chief