Editor’s Note for Thursday, Dec 8, 2022

My thoughts today:

“China’s coming COVID tsunami?” That’s the title of our top story today in which contributor Lee Moore speaks to some experts, and looks at the most recent data and reporting about the future of the coronavirus in China. Pessimistic estimates say the country should be prepared for more than two million deaths, but even the optimists sound gloomy.

I myself am generally a pessimist, but I find myself tentatively questioning the apparent consensus that China is about to experience an enormous wave of COVID deaths, despite the fact that the scientists who are talking about it to the media and on the internet all seem to fear the worst. These are the reasons I think it’s worth taking a deep breath before panicking about the potential for mass mortality:

• Death rates in many developing countries have not been nearly as high as some predicted in the early days of the pandemic.
• Although the population of most developing countries skews young while China’s skews old, China’s senior citizens are among the most risk-averse people on the planet. They will wear face masks, they will stay at home, avoid crowds, and they will take other precautions. And their children and society will largely support them.
• Omicron is more infectious than previous variants but it seems quite certain that it is less deadly.

We’ll see what happens in the coming days and weeks. Watch this space for reporting.

For nearly a decade, Uyghurs in China have been living in an extreme surveillance state. In the last few weeks, they have not been able to join the demonstrations in China against excessive COVID surveillance and lockdown policies, despite being the worst-affected group, and the victims of the Ürümchi fire that sparked the protests.

Our Xinjiang columnist Darren Byler has a new piece on today on The China Project.

Our word of the day is COVID tsunami (新冠海啸 xīnguān hǎixiào).

—Jeremy Goldkorn, Editor-in-Chief