Under threat from China, Taiwan moves to boost military training

Reversing its decades-long trend of demilitarizing, Taiwan announced (in Chinese) on Tuesday that it will extend its mandatory conscription for young men from four months to one year beginning in 2024. The announcement comes as China is establishing a new normal of increased military activity near Taiwanese territory.

The new extended conscription will go into effect on January 1, 2024, and includes a tripling of Taiwan’s notoriously low conscript pay from about $195 to more than $650 per month. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文 Cài Yīngwén) said conscription of women, who are currently exempt, was under consideration.

With 17 months left as Taiwan’s president and November’s local elections behind her, Tsai has political capital to spare on such a sensitive issue. Responding to a reporter’s question, Tsai said that her message to the Taiwanese people is that “Taiwan has a responsible government, and it will do whatever it takes” to ensure military preparedness in the face of China’s ever-increasing presence.

Taiwan’s next election is only one year away, and this move places defense at the top of national debate as the island prepares for its presidential and legislative campaigns. If Beijing’s behavior before past presidential elections in Taiwan is any indicator, it is likely that China’s harassment of its smaller democratic neighbor is only getting started.

The timing for Tsai’s announcement was ideal: Just one day earlier, Taiwan’s defense ministry announced that 71 Chinese military aircraft jets had entered the buffer zone just beyond Taiwanese airspace, the largest number in a 24-hour period seen this year.

Among the aircraft, 43 crossed the symbolic median line in the Taiwan Strait. China’s belligerent move was “a firm response to the current escalation of provocations by the U.S. in collusion with the Taiwan authorities,” according to a statement by Shī Yì 施毅, a spokesperson for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command.

Shi did not elaborate, but was possibly referring to the signing on Friday of the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act, which earmarks as much as $10 billion in assistance and weapon procurement for Taiwan.

At present, China, the U.S., and Taiwan are engaged in a cycle of “salami slicing,” in which Beijing’s increasing coercion efforts against Taiwan are met with increasingly close ties and cooperation between Washington and Taipei. There is no indication that either side seeks to back down anytime soon.

“I anticipate that Taiwan’s security environment will worsen in 2023,” said Bonnie Glaser, the Asia program director at the German Marshall Fund in Washington, D.C.

“The new Speaker of the House may visit Taiwan. President Tsai may transit the U.S. in March,” Glaser said. “China may opt to respond to actions by the U.S. and Taiwan, jointly and separately, to strengthen Taiwan’s defense,” she added, saying any of these developments could trigger responses from the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

The encroachment on Taiwanese airspace by China’s military over the weekend was the most significant activity by the PLA since U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s meeting with Tsai in Taipei in August, after which the PLA performed exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan’s main island.

In her Tuesday press conference, Tsai made her case for extending conscription. She started by highlighting the resilience of Ukraine in the face of Russian invasion, which influenced discussion of conscription.

Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, she noted, bought time for the international community to provide it with assistance. Declining to go into detail, Tsai confirmed that her government has spoken with different countries that are concerned about Taiwan on how they might help in the event of an invasion attempt by China. “Nobody wants a war,” Tsai said, while pointing out the importance of sending China a message that Taiwan is prepared to fight for its survival.

A shift in tone

Tsai’s announcement marks a subtle but significant shift in the tone of the national conversation regarding the threat of a Chinese attack, said Wen-Ti Sung (Sòng Wéndí 宋文笛), a political scientist at the Australian National University.

“I think there’s been a change in rhetoric from the Tsai administration for sure,” Sung said, adding that there are domestic and international aspects to the shift.

For her Taiwanese constituency, this proactive move could quell concerns that arose after China’s response to the Pelosi visit this summer, when some saw a relatively passive military response by the Tsai administration.

“It’s her way of reassuring a domestic audience that her government is on it,” Sung said.

For an overseas audience, including the United States, Japan, and other democracies, the conscription decision should reassure that Taiwan is determined and resolved to defend itself, he added.

The new conscription rule could be passed by executive order, but some members of Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have suggested putting it to a vote in the legislature, where the DPP holds a majority, all but ensuring its passage.

A vote would force lawmakers from the opposing Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, to take a stance — potentially exposing them to criticism for being weak on defense if they vote no, or hypocritical if they vote yes.

“That could put the Kuomintang between a rock and a hard place,” Sung said regarding the possible legislative vote on conscription. “It doesn’t want to be seen as soft on national security, nor does it want to be seen as supporting military reforms that Beijing might consider ‘provocative.’”