Japan’s Prime Minister travels the world cementing alliances with G7 countries, discomfiting China

Japanese generals may soon be able to launch a barrage of rockets aimed at targets across China, including Beijing.

The Tokyo government has requested the acquisition of about 500 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States at a cost of around $2 billion.

The missiles could either be fired from the ground or from submarines, and have a range of up to 2,500 kilometers (1,500 miles). The missiles are manufactured by Raytheon Technologies, an aerospace and defense company based in Tucson, Arizona, and a large military contractor that gets a significant portion of its revenue from the U.S. government. The company’s website says that they either carry a 1,000-pound conventional warhead or a package of 166 cluster bombs. (The United States has a stockpile of around 4,000 Tomahawk missiles according to the Wall Street Journal, although that number seems to be based on a 2020 report from The National Interest). 

The U.S. has also sold them to Britain for use by Royal Navy submarines.

The Biden administration strongly supports Japan’s military build-up

All signs indicate that the sale of the weapons to Japan — a staunch ally of the United States — would be politically straightforward, so far as Washington is concerned.

During a brief on-camera meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House on January 13, President Joe Biden waved his finger at his guest and stated: “Let me be crystal clear: The United States is fully, thoroughly, completely committed to the alliance. And, more importantly, to Japan’s defense.”

Biden praised the Japanese cabinet for approving a record-breaking defense budget, which totals 6.82 trillion yen ($51.4 billion) for the fiscal year beginning in April. It means that Japan’s military spending will nearly double, marking one of the largest military buildups since the end of World War II.

Of particular note to Japan’s rivals — especially China — was a recent pledge made by Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada that Japan might launch a counteroffensive before being hit by missiles or other weapons, if it found that an adversary was planning an attack. 

Japan and the U.S. claim say they need to maintain balance of power in the Indo-Pacific

The Pentagon estimates that China has more than 1,000 ballistic missiles and about 300 ground-based cruise missiles capable of hitting Japan. If Taiwan were to be attacked, analysts suggest China’s weapons could be used against American and Japanese forces, including U.S. military bases in Japan. 

In a speech on January 13 at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Kishida described China as “the most central challenge for both Japan and the U.S.”

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed its strong opposition to the strengthening of Japan’s firepower, saying that the buildup flies in the face of the pacifist principles which were enshrined in Japan’s constitution at the end of the World War II.

Foreign ministry spokesman Wāng Wénbīn 汪文斌  denounced the statements coming out of Washington as “full of groundless smears against China.”

“While claiming to promote regional peace and stability, the U.S. and Japan are in fact finding a pretext for their military buildup,” Wang told the regular news briefing in Beijing on January 13.

The next day, the Global Times, a nationalist tabloid controlled by the Party’s house newspaper, the People’s Daily, published an editorial accusing Japan of creating “a crazy vicious circle.”

“If you treat China as a ‘threat,’ you actually become a ‘threat’ to China, and in turn China will really become a ‘threat’ to you,” said the paper. It went on to emphasize that China’s military strength is much greater than that of Japan. 

A whirligig world tour

The meetings in Washington were the culmination of a whirlwind international tour by Kishida to mark the start of Japan’s term as the president of the G7 group of rich countries.

From the Chinese perspective, the meetings with the British and Italian prime ministers were particularly significant. Those three nations are committed to a partnership called the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) — an ambitious endeavour to develop a next-generation fighter aircraft by 2035.

After meeting his Italian counterpart, Giorgia Meloni, in Rome, Kishida said at a joint press conference: “We agreed to enhance our countries’ cooperation further, in order to maintain and reinforce free and open international order based on the rule of law.” 

Another phrase was repeated throughout his world tour: “Unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force are not acceptable.” Such terms are familiar to Japanese ears as expressions of frustration with China. In particular, they are often used in reference to the situation in the Senkaku Islands, which Japan controls but which CHina claims as its own and calls the Diaoyu Islands. 

The Japanese Coast Guard said that Chinese vessels have already crossed into Japanese territorial waters around the islands at least 27 times since the start of 2023.

Japan’s Prime Minister is an ardent supporter of Volodymyr Zelensky

Kishida also used his meetings with the G7 leaders to press for strong international backing for Ukraine in the fight against the Russian invasion. He told French President Emmnual Macron at the Elysee Palace that: “We will unite as the G7 to maintain and strengthen powerful sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine.”

In an interview with the Washington Post, Kishida said that “Ukraine today may be Asia tomorrow” — a remark which implies that if an emboldened China sees Ukraine as a precedent for an attack on Taiwan, it could unleash war and chaos in the Far East. 

Before departing on the G7 tour, Kishida spoke to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky via videolink and pledged Japan’s continued support in the face of aggression from Russia. He received an invitation to visit Kiev, although no date for that trip has yet been set. 

Japan is still resolutely against the idea of nuclear weapons

As the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has noted, the rhetoric of Japan’s government, NATO, the G7 and the Pentagon is often broadly similar when it comes to issues of defense and security. There is also an overlap with the geopolitical positions of Australia and India, which form part of the informal security pact with Japan and the U.S. known as the Quad.

Yet there is one point on which the Japanese prime minister seems out of step with the Americans, Indians, British, and French. He often speaks of an ambition to achieve the total elimination of nuclear weapons. Japan’s recently updated national security strategy contains a solemn pledge to uphold three non-nuclear principles of not possessing, not producing and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons, in line with Japan’s constitution. 

Other countries are not interested in making such commitments. In 2021, Britain announced it would be lifting the cap on its nuclear arsenal to 260 warheads. 

Prime Minister Kishida will host the G7 leaders in his home city of Hiroshima in May. Joe Biden will no doubt speak admiringly of Kishida’s efforts to reconcile with the United States and pull the world back from the brink of another nuclear conflict.

Yet the U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said on January 11 that the U.S. has an unwavering commitment to the defense of Japan, “including extended deterrence provided by the full range of conventional and nuclear capabilities.”

Meanwhile, North Korea continues to work on its nuclear weapons programme. Both the Pentagon and South Korean officials warn that another nuclear test is likely to be authorized by Kim Jong-Un at some point soon.