Xi is in Russia for the first time since the start of the Ukraine war

Chinese leader Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 is in Moscow on his first state visit since the start of the Ukraine war, in his latest show of support to an increasingly isolated Russia.

Today, Xi met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin for four and a half hours of informal talks, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti. They discussed bilateral cooperation, as well as China’s 12-point plan to resolve the Ukraine conflict that it released on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion.”We’re always open for a negotiation process,” Putin said. (China’s plan did not call for Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly told the media that he would decline to negotiate unless Russia pulls back its invading army.)

Xi and Putin are also planning to meet again for formal talks tomorrow.

Xi’s three-day trip comes as Beijing seeks to play a more active role in mediating a resolution to the Ukraine war. Reports have also indicated that Xi plans to call Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week, also for the first time since the start of the conflict.

China’s lifeline to an isolated Russia

On February 4, 2022, Putin visited Beijing for the opening of the Winter Olympic Games and together with Xi declared a “no limits partnership” between their countries. Since Putin’s invasion 20 days later on February 24, 2022, Russia has gone to great lengths to emphasize Beijing’s support for Moscow as pressure grows from the West over the Ukraine war.

While Beijing has not, since the invasion, provided military support, China has deepened its economic linkages with Russia and has refrained from condemning Putin’s invasion. Bilateral trade hit a new record high in 2022 of 1.28 trillion yuan ($190 billion), according to Chinese customs figures, a 34.3% increase year-on-year, providing a lifeline to Russia in the face of Western sanctions.

But China’s support for its isolated and unpredictable northern neighbor is largely self-motivated, as it laps up steeply discounted Russian energy exports to power its economy at home, and cements ideological allegiances amid deteriorating ties with the United States.

“The alpha and omega of China’s approach to Russia is what’s good for China, not necessarily what’s good for Russia. China has no interest in being a Russian proxy…I think because China is self-interested, what they’ve tried to do is to be supportive of Russia at the strategic level while minimizing support to Russia at the tactical and operational level,” Evan Feigenbaum told The China Project in February. “Essentially, China’s trying to have its cake and eat it too.”

China’s uncomfortable balancing act between Moscow and the West

While Beijing has lent its support to Moscow via “pro-Russian neutrality,” it has also so far complied with Western sanctions in a bid to avoid further alienating the U.S. and European nations.

“So far in Xi’s remarks to the Russian media, we have seen some effort to distance from Russia, no doubt to continue to push the narrative about China’s supposed impartiality on Ukraine,” Elizabeth Wishnick, senior researcher for CNA and Montclair State University and scholar for the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, told The China Project. “In these remarks, Xi didn’t talk about the limitless partnership — instead, he highlighted that both China and Russia are committed to non-alliance and to the continued development of their cooperation, especially in trade, investment, and cultural exchanges.”

Xi’s trip is an increasingly rare honor for Putin, who just a few days earlier, was issued an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for overseeing the abduction of Ukrainian children. Putin on Saturday also made a surprise visit to the occupied Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, his first since the Russian invasion, in another bid to show that he has Beijing’s support.

“While Xi advocated the need for greater mutual trust, Putin, in his own remarks to the P.R.C. media, praised the Sino-Russian partnership for its high degree of trust. Notably, Putin spoke of ‘no limits’ to the partnership,” Wishnick added. “This being said, Russian experts writing in the Russian media didn’t see any likelihood of Xi offering any military aid to Russia.”

Pressure on Putin mounts from the West

The U.S. has urged Xi to push for a complete withdrawal of Russia troops in plans for a ceasefire to the Ukraine war during his talks with Putin.

“The world should not be fooled by any tactical move by Russia, supported by China or any other country, to freeze the war on its own terms,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. The comments were reiterated by Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council.

The Biden administration has also pledged to ramp up Russian sanctions, with a focus on targeting any Chinese support with civilian or military uses, such as key technologies like raw materials, smartphones, vehicles and computer chips.

Meanwhile, 17 out of 27 EU member states and Norway agreed to jointly “procurement of ammunition to aid Ukraine and replenish Member States’ national stockpiles,” the European Defence Agency (EDA) announced today.