How safe is it, exactly, to do business with China?

How safe is it, exactly, to do business in China? Recent news seems to suggest contradictory answers.

Earlier today, the South China Morning Post reported that Alibaba founder Jack Ma (马云 Mǎ Yún) returned to mainland China after more than a year overseas, meeting with students and teachers in Hangzhou, where Alibaba is headquartered.

His latest return to his company’s home city is being spun as indicative of Chinese government efforts to spur the private sector, after several months of reporting that suggested he was afraid to return to China.

But last week, Chinese authorities made a surprise raid on U.S. due diligence and private investigation firm Mintz Group’s Beijing, detaining five of the company’s local employees. Reuters cited a source at the firm who said the employees were being held incommunicado somewhere outside of Beijing. In a statement released on Friday, Mintz said the raid took place last Monday, with the office being temporarily shuttered.

Founded in 1994 in New York, Mintz has offices in 18 cities around the world (Beijing is its only office in mainland China).

In a separate incident, the Chinese foreign ministry said today “that an employee of Japanese firm Astellas Pharma had been detained on suspicion of espionage,” without giving details. The Japanese has”strongly” demanded that China immediately release the Japanese national.

Red alerts, red envelopes, or red roulette?

The news of the raid on Mintz broke on the eve of the China Development Forum (CDF), which was held in Beijing from Saturday to Monday.

The CDF was reportedly attended by more than 100 overseas delegates of international businesses and organizations, including International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva, who gave a speech.

But the conference was notable for another reason: the lack of U.S. representation. Apple CEO Tim Cook, making his first trip to China in three years, and investor Ray Dalio were among the only big-name Americans present. This is hardly surprising, given the current mood in Washington D.C. about China, and the hostile five-hour grilling last Thursday of TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew (周受资 Zhōu Shòuzī) at a Congressional hearing.

Nonetheless, Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 wrote a congratulatory letter for the CDF’s opening, read out by Vice Premier Dīng Xuēxiáng 丁薛祥, who gave the keynote speech. “[We will] continue to expand [China’s] market access, comprehensively optimize the business environment, implement national treatment for foreign companies, and make greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign capital,” Ding said.

From bridge to battleground

That message may not be heard. Reuters quoted one “U.S. business community person” as saying that the Mintz raid “sent a ‘remarkable signal’ that Beijing wants foreign money and technology but that it won’t accept credible U.S. firms conducting due diligence on Chinese partners or the business environment,” which should set off “Red alerts…in all boardrooms right now about risks in China.”

James McGregor, a veteran China executive, author, and head of the consultancy APCO Worldwide Greater China, told The China Project: “American business has gone from being the bridge between China and the U.S. to all-too-often being the battleground as national economies go from globalization to weaponization when it comes to technology and all the leading industries of the future.”

“CEOs are struggling to get their heads around this as it is all happening so fast,” McGregor added.

The business community now turns its attention to the Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan Province, where Premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 is expected to give a keynote address at the opening tomorrow. The theme this year is “An Uncertain World: Solidarity and Cooperation for Development Amid Challenges.”

The uncertainty is apparent; it remains to be seen how much solidarity and cooperation is possible.