China will have a smaller population than India by the end of this week

Here’s what else you need to know about China today:

Top story: China’s Arctic ambitions through Russia are stoking NATO fears. Polar sea ice is melting at an unprecedented rate, potentially freeing up access to faster shipping routes and vast natural resources in the Arctic. China has its eyes on those lucrative opportunities through Russia.

India will surpass China as the world’s most populous country, with a population of 1,425,775,850 people by the end of April, the United Nations said in a new policy brief. (A separate UN body had estimated last week that India would overtake China by the middle of 2023.) While both nations have seen declining fertility rates and a growing number of elderly since the 1970s, the slowdown is happening more gradually in India.

Guatemala pledged its “absolute support” for Taiwan, a win for the self-ruled island as it seeks to retain a dwindling number of global allies with official diplomatic ties to Taipei. “I want everyone to trust that Guatemala will continue to be a solid diplomatic ally to the Republic of Taiwan and will continue to deepen cooperation in all areas,” Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei said in a speech standing next to Taiwanese counterpart Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文 Cài Yīngwén) in Taipei.

A Taiwanese political activist was formally arrested in China on secession charges more than eight months after he was detained in August 2022, one day after former U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived for her controversial visit to Taipei. Yang Chih-yuan (杨智渊 Yáng Zhìyuān), the 33-year-old founder of the now-dissolved pro-independence Taiwanese National Party, was held in custody in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, for supporting “separatist” activities and endangering national security.

Inbound travelers to China can now show a negative antigen test taken within 48 hours instead of a PCR result to show proof of their COVID status, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced today, lifting the health requirement in place for some countries.

State media: The Chinese government has set up the “Asian Cultural Heritage Conservation Alliance,” which is dedicated to “protecting Asian cultural heritage and deepening exchanges among Asian civilizations.” Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 sent the alliance a “congratulatory letter” and this is today’s top story of both state news wire Xinhua (English, Chinese) and the Party paper the People’s Daily.

The world’s major sources of cobalt, a key ingredient in many types of electric car battery, are mines operated by China’s CMOC Group in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The cobalt will keep flowing after CMOC resolved a payment dispute with its Congolese partner. Hong Kong–listed shares in CMOC surged, but some analysts worry the move will lead to a glut and price drops.

Delivery workers for ecommerce giant Meituan are striking for the sixth day in Shanwei, Guangdong Province, in protest at diminishing benefits and rewards. It’s not yet clear if the government will allow the strike to continue in the name of “common prosperity,” or end it for “stability maintenance.”