China and South Korea: Beijing balks at the new global order

This is the latest installment of China’s World, Duncan Bartlett’s monthly column on China’s diplomatic and political relationships with countries around the world.

Stories about Korean kings kneeling before Chinese emperors continue to evoke painful memories on the peninsula. According to one legend, an unfortunate Korean ruler in the 1630s banged his head so hard on the ground while groveling at the throne of an invading Qing emperor that his forehead started to bleed.

This humiliating episode was recounted in the Korean parliament in June 2023 by a member of the governing party, Kang Min-kuk. He was railing against the current Chinese ambassador to Seoul, Xíng Hǎimíng 邢海明.

Xing is openly critical of the pro-U.S. policies of President Yoon Suk-yeol. Xing spoke candidly of his disapproval in a speech delivered at his embassy, which was recorded and uploaded on YouTube. It included this pertinent remark:

At a time when the United States makes an all-out effort to strangle China, some people are betting on the United States emerging as the victor and China the loser. But what I can say for sure is that those who bet that China will lose out (to the United States) will certainly regret it later.

The speech led to fury within the Korean government; local media gave the impression that President Yoon would have liked to kick the ambassador out of a job and send him packing back to Beijing. In the end, a compromise was agreed upon. Xing was reprimanded for his “unreasonable and provocative” words but allowed to remain in Seoul, provided he agreed to no further “deviations from the duties of his diplomatic mission.”

President Yoon is positioning South Korea as a steadfast ally of America

In the view of Rory Green, the head of Asia Research at Global Data TS Lombard, the tension between China and Korea stems from Yoon’s determination to bolster the alliance with the United States.

“The link to the U.S. is the most important bilateral relationship for South Korea and the president has adopted Washington’s stance on a range of key global geopolitical and economic issues, most notably Taiwan,” Green told The China Project in an interview from Seoul.

In April, China took umbrage when Yoon condemned “attempts to change the status quo by force” in Taiwan. He said the Taiwan issue was of global importance, contradicting China’s claim that it is purely a domestic matter.

Yoon then enjoyed a state visit to America, where he was feted by Joe Biden. The two leaders also shared platforms at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, in May and the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July. South Korea is not a member of either organization, so Yoon was officially an “observer” at both events.

NATO leaders criticized China for striving “to subvert the rules-based international order.” They also said the P.R.C. challenges the alliance’s interests, security, and values with its “stated ambitions and coercive policies.”

Although Yoon was not a signatory of the NATO communiqué, he did announce a long-term partnership program with the alliance during the meeting in Vilnius.

The Chinese mission to the European Union condemned NATO’s “eastward movement into the Asia-Pacific region” and warned that “any act that jeopardizes China’s legitimate rights and interests will be met with a resolute response.”

The U.S. has sent a submarine capable of firing nuclear weapons to South Korea.

There was a striking display of South Korea’s strong links with the American military when a U.S. submarine docked at the port of Busan in mid-July, 2023. The USS Kentucky is capable of firing long-range nuclear ballistic missiles.

This development is being closely watched in both Beijing and Pyongyang. The goal is to ensure North Korea understands that “any nuclear attack by the D.P.R.K. against the R.O.K. will be met with a swift, overwhelming, and decisive response” the allies said in a joint statement.

Mr Yoon boarded the sub and gave a speech.

“As President Biden warned in April that North Korea’s nuclear attacks will lead to the end of the regime, we must enhance the viability of extended deterrence by leveraging our nuclear-based alliance to ensure that North Korea does not dare to use nuclear weapons,” he said.

Between 2017 and 2021, the then leaders of South Korea and the United States — presidents Moon Jae-In and Donald Trump — asked China to pressure North Korea into halting its nuclear and missile tests. Since then, Biden and Yoon have concluded the tactic was ineffective and are trying a significantly different approach.

The China Project asked Rory Green how realistic it is for the South Koreans to expect China to persuade North Korea to halt its rocket launches.

“I don’t think there’s much to gain for Beijing,” replied Green. “It helps to have this loose cannon in East Asia which keeps the alliance of democracies — as Biden calls it — firmly on its toes. I don’t believe China sees it as in its interest to reign in Kim Jong-un, provided his attention is directed firmly outwards and away from the China – North Korea border,” Green told us.

Japan and South Korea are more friendly than they have been for decades

Another factor which has led China’s nationalist state-owned tabloid Global Times to accuse Yoon of “betraying the long-standing friendly cooperation between China and South Korea” is a remarkable rapprochement between South Korea and Japan.

Since Yoon became president in the summer of 2022, he has held a series of productive meetings with his Japanese counterpart, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The two Asian leaders will be treated as VIP guests by President Joe Biden when he hosts a trilateral summit at Camp David in the United States on August 18, 2023.

Rory Green says that “Washington has long tried to push its two closest Asian allies together but has often been unsuccessful in this endeavor because Japan’s brutal 35 year occupation of Korea has scarred the Korean psyche.” This makes it “striking that Yoon has almost unilaterally decided to absolve Japan of responsibility [and] taken the huge step of asking Korean companies to pay compensation for Japan’s past crimes.”

Yoon’s “bravery” in patching things up with Japan has been praised by Biden and his Indo-Pacific coordinator, Kurt Campbell. But there are other reasons the South Korean president is a welcome presence at international summits. South Korea describes itself as a strong democracy and a major economic power and it has particular prowess in two crucial industries: semiconductors and defense equipment.

China might take revenge

South Korea is one of only a handful of countries which runs a trade surplus with China, which is by far its most significant trading partner. This means Yoon is taking a risk.

Green said that while “Yoon has had some success in using South Korea’s geographic and strategic position — as well as its considerable economic clout — to gain a seat at the global table…The challenge will be to continue this progress without damaging its economic ties with China.”

Yoon’s opponents in Seoul warn that if South Korea moves too deeply into the American sphere of influence, it could provoke an angry reaction from China.

Beijing has form: In 2017, China waged a painful campaign of boycotts and unofficial sanctions against South Korean businesses following Seoul’s installation of a U.S. missile defense system called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), which Beijing viewed as a threat.

Debate about how South Korea should handle relations with the U.S., China, and Japan takes up much time within Seoul’s parliament. It is also a common theme in the country’s upmarket media. However, the South Korean press also has a streak of tabloid sensationalism and therefore loves to draw attention to Yoon’s tendency to speak out of turn. It also loves gossip about his wife, first lady Kim Keon-hee.

According to the Korea Herald, she wore a necklace worth an estimated $45 000 to a meeting in Spain last year. Images of her haute couture dresses receive many more clicks than reports of speeches by her husband. Indeed, the president’s popularity fluctuates depending on social media trends, but opinion polls suggest that he has endured extremely low levels of support at several points over the past year.

Under South Korea’s constitution, Yoon cannot run for a second term in office but he is hoping that his success on the international stage will impress voters and provide a boost for his party, the right-wing PPP, in the National Assembly elections which are due in 2024.

Voters will be asked to consider if their leader has successfully advanced South Korea’s standing as a prosperous liberal democracy with increased global influence.

It is implicit that a vote for the Yoon side is an endorsement of the Biden administration’s objectives for the Indo-Pacific. Reconciliation with China seems an unlikely prospect.