Editor’s Note for Monday, February 28, 2022

My thoughts today:

What did Xi know and when did he know it? That was the subject line of our email last week Friday, and in it I wrote that I found it difficult to believe that Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 did not know the invasion was coming, even if he wasn’t privy to the exact date.

What Xi definitely could not have known is how badly the Russian attack would go. The poor performance of the Russian Army and the widespread global disapproval of its actions seem to have surprised everyone, including the Russians. Historian Timothy Snyder suggests that Moscow expected a “quick and decisive” strike against Ukraine, and that it revealed its aims and plans in a media report that should not have gone out.

Which means that even if Vladimir Putin told Xi exactly what he planned to do, Beijing would have planned on a fast end to the crisis. This may explain why China’s embassy in Ukraine first told its citizens there to place a Chinese flag on their vehicles, and has now changed its advice, telling them not to reveal their identity because Ukrainians may believe that China supports the Russian invasion.

It’s all idle speculation on a darkling plain, amid the fog of war, and after the first real threat of the use of nuclear weapons that I can remember in my own lifetime.

Meanwhile, Beijing continues to make vaguely disapproving noises about Russian actions without saying anything specific at all.

Our word of the day is COVID-19 origin (新冠病毒起源 xīnguān bìngdú qǐyuán).