Xi and Li condemn Putin’s nuclear threats
Putin was not mentioned by name, but Beijing edged away from Moscow at the G20 summit, leaving Russia increasingly isolated.
According to the White House’s official readout of their bilateral meeting on November 14 at the G20 in Bali, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 “reiterated their agreement that a nuclear war should never be fought and can never be won and underscored their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.”
According to the readout from the Chinese Foreign Ministry:
President Xi pointed out that China is highly concerned about the current situation in Ukraine…Facing a global, composite crisis like the one in Ukraine, it is important to give serious thought to the following: first, conflicts and wars produce no winner; second, there is no simple solution to a complex issue; and third, confrontation between major countries must be avoided. China has all along stood on the side of peace and will continue to encourage peace talks.
We support and look forward to a resumption of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, we hope that the United States, NATO, and the EU will conduct comprehensive dialogues with Russia.
Separately, Chinese Premier Lǐ Kèqiáng 李克强 emphasized the “irresponsibility” of nuclear threats on November 13 at the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh. According to the statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry:
On the Ukraine crisis, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that China always stands for respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, supporting all efforts to peaceful resolution of the crisis, exercising rational restraint, and opposing the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons.
Nuclear weapons cannot be used, and nuclear wars must not be fought, he said, urging to maintain a peaceful world order.
Finally, all G20 members approved — including both China and Russia, apparently — the G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration, which included language that was sharply critical of Moscow:
We reiterated our national positions as expressed in other fora…[which] deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine.
Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine…There were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions.
Is Beijing finally shifting its position?
Xi and Li’s comments, along with the G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration, suggest that Beijing is shifting its rhetoric on the Ukraine conflict. If so, there are several factors that could explain its evolution.
The military situation in Ukraine appears to be at something of a stalemate. While there is no evidence that Russian forces will be able to conquer significant additional territory, Ukrainian forces will also have a very difficult time dislodging Russian forces. U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley has said that the likelihood of Ukraine fully recovering territory occupied by Russia is “not high” and suggested that Ukraine may have a favorable window for talks.
Chinese Communist Party officials may also be turning their attention to economic growth. There are signs that China is lifting its COVID-zero policy, including in Shijiazhuang, a city only 160 miles from Beijing. The government also appears to be reversing its real estate crackdown and extending support to the embattled sector.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has significantly harmed China’s economic interests, including by raising crude oil prices — although food prices may have peaked and could face deflationary pressures if Ukraine is able to export its grain again. If Beijing is indeed prioritizing economic growth, it may be interested in reducing the intensity of the war in Ukraine.
