China and other neighbors fear instability in Afghanistan

Top diplomats from China, Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan gathered in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on April 14 to discuss the current situation in Afghanistan and the prospects for its development.

While the fourth conference on Afghanistan’s Neighboring States spanned a wide range of topics, the main focus was a sidelines meeting between the foreign ministers of China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan on how to combat a surge in terrorist activities, and ensure regional security in Afghanistan under the Taliban administration.

The joint statement from four ministers urged for a “stable and peaceful” Afghanistan and raised concern over terrorism threats in the country. It specifically named the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-KP), al-Qaeda, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Jaish al-Adl, based in Afghanistan, and the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which Beijing has long labeled a threat to China. (The U.S. State Department placed ETIM on its list of terrorist organizations in 2002, but in 2020 said it had “seen no credible evidence for more than a decade that the group still exists,” and removed it.)

The Taliban’s foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, also attended the conference despite being sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council.

China doesn’t want to own any problems in Afghanistan

The conference “was a reflection of the regional approach that China has been taking, notwithstanding the fact that [Beijing] could very much lead the efforts in Afghanistan if it wanted to,” Raffaello Pantucci, senior fellow at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told The China Project today. “In reality, [China] is very reticent to do anything that might place it in a position of leadership or ‘ownership’ of Afghanistan and its problems.”

The statement called on NATO countries to “bear primary responsibility for the predicament in Afghanistan” and “instantly lift unilateral sanctions.” The ministers also “opposed the reestablishment of military bases in and around Afghanistan” by those countries.

Two days earlier on April 12, China released an 11-point position paper on its approach to Afghanistan, in which it called out the U.S. for “creat[ing] the Afghan issue in the first place” and as “the biggest external factor that hinders substantive improvement in the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan.”

“The fact that the document also took a moment to have a dig at NATO and the United States, which they accuse of being responsible for this mess, is a clever way to both curry favor with the Taliban, [and] also have a dig at their principal adversary, the United States,” Pantucci told The China Project.

On April 14, Afghan foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi met his Chinese counterpart, Qín Gāng 秦刚. Source: Twitter account of Afghan “Deputy Spokesman and Assistant Director of Public Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs.”

Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily also published an article with views from Chinese analysts, many of which emphasize Beijing’s efforts to support Afghan sovereignty and regional cooperation in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. “China is the only major country that has never hurt Afghanistan,” former Chinese foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 has said in the past.

Neighboring countries eye Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal

When the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban was quick to fill the void of power and take control of Kabul. China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran — the major participants in the Samarkand summit — have sought to increase their influence in the wake of the U.S. departure.

The collapse of the previous government drove other countries in the region to come up with ways to deal with the new Taliban administration. Neighboring states had set up the joint mechanism in order to prevent any spillover from the regime change and help stabilize the situation.

No country, including China, has officially recognized the Taliban’s government since it took power. But China is one of the few countries that has given its tacit support through diplomatic engagements with the administration. China, along with Russia, Iran, and Pakistan, have kept their diplomatic missions in Kabul — an important political symbol for the Taliban, which has been extending its global outreach in an effort to legitimize its regime.

China’s cautious economic support has also been a lifeline to the Taliban, which has found itself in a vulnerable and isolated position under Western sanctions: Malnutrition rates have skyrocketed, jobs have declined, and most women have been barred from work. Beijing has increased its economic engagement in Afghanistan in the years since 2021 under the Belt and Road Initiative. Deals with Chinese entrepreneurs have culminated in lucrative projects such as an oil deal in the northern Amu Darya basin and the development of a $216 million industrial park on the outskirts of Kabul.

“The Taliban government is interested in Chinese investment, and is desperately keen to get them to pour money into their country to help it stand up economically,” Pantucci told The China Project. “This is something the Chinese are willing to play along in supporting at least publicly, as they see a value in helping keep the Taliban government stable as they fear the consequences of the greater chaos that could follow should the Taliban fall apart.”

Neighbors fear a rise in terrorism under the Taliban

China and Afghanistan’s other neighboring countries have been frustrated with the Taliban’s inability to contain the growing activities of militant groups in the country.

China has long been aware of the high risks of its engagement in Afghanistan. But Beijing has grown even more wary in light of an increasing number of attacks targeting Chinese nationals and interests in the region: Most notably, Islamic State militants opened fire at a hotel frequented by Chinese businessmen in Kabul in December 2022.

“China remains principally concerned about security threats from Afghanistan, and the potential for them to spread like a contagion around its immediate neighborhood,” Pantucci told The China Project. “At the same time, there are some Chinese companies who are interested in the country’s mineral resources and potential opportunities.”

China’s primary interest in Afghanistan is to ensure its own security and stability. For Beijing, the concerted push to stabilize Afghanistan stems from a deep-rooted fear that any turmoil might bleed into China’s own territories, as it seeks to maintain control over its vast western border with Central and South Asia and its restive province of Xinjiang.

Beijing has long reiterated its fears over ETIM, which China in part blames for unrest in Xinjiang, and uses as a justification for its “reeducation” programs. While the Taliban has tried to fulfill Beijing’s demands to crack down on ETIM, the United Nations said in July 2022 that “several Member States noted” that ETIM is “continuing to strengthen its relations” with TTP and al-Qaeda, and is “focusing on morale and planning to carry out terrorist attacks against Chinese interests in the region when the time is right.” The report does not mention which member states, and it conflates ETIM with the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), a distinct organization.

Neighboring countries and international organizations have also become concerned that the Taliban will allow Afghanistan to become a breeding ground for terrorist organizations. In Afghanistan’s south, violence has increased along its border with Pakistan since the Taliban took power. And a United Nations report in May 2022 raised concern that Taliban’s close ties to al-Qaeda would turn the country into a “safe haven” for the terrorist organization that carried out the 9/11 attacks on the U.S.

“There is the fear that the region’s problems will start to export north and south. You can already see trouble to the south getting worse, with the increasingly negative security situation in Pakistan…Beyond this, Beijing worries that the country could become a place from where its enemies could plot attacks against it,” Pantucci told The China Project.

The Taliban did not respond to The China Project’s requests via email and Twitter for comment.