China’s diplomats are driving other countries to sympathize with Taiwan

Even by the increasingly low standards of China’s fractious relationship with the democratic world, last week was not a good one for Chinese diplomacy — at least in terms of the optics for foreign observers.

In a span of one week, Chinese diplomats threatened 150,000 Filipinos working overseas, got into a quickly spiraling spat with South Korea, and openly questioned the statehood of the 14 former Soviet countries. The common thread between these three episodes is the Chinese Communist Party’s holy grail and bête noir: Taiwan.

While Beijing’s intent may be to scare countries into maintaining support for the cross-strait status quo, and away from buttressing Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty, initial reactions suggest that Chinese diplomats may have contributed to a hardening of attitudes in Europe, South Korea, and the Philippines. How consequential these diplomatic incidents will be remains to be seen, but if recent history is any guide, it could have major implications for China’s ties with the democratic world.

Case in point: China’s attempts in December 2021 to economically coerce Lithuania from getting closer to Taiwan drove support for the EU’s pending anti-coercion instrument — the wording of which was finalized in late March — that, if passed, would respond to targeted action against EU states by China with a collective response.

Fierce reaction to remarks by China’s ambassador to France

Speaking on French television last Friday, Lú Shāyě 卢沙野, the Chinese ambassador to France, elicited angry reactions from capitals across Europe when he voiced doubts regarding the legitimacy of states that had been previously occupied by the Soviet Union.

When asked about Crimea in an interview on news and current affairs channel LCI, Lu echoed the rhetoric that Beijing takes toward Taiwan, saying it was historically Russian. He continued, touching upon the rest of the former Soviet Union, saying that the 14 countries that became independent of Moscow in the 1990s “don’t have effective status under international law, because there is not an international agreement confirming their status as sovereign nations.”

Outrage spread across Europe over the weekend. On Sunday, a group of more than 80 European lawmakers signed a letter to French Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna demanding she declare Lu persona non grata and expel him. The unprecedented appeal was published in the French newspaper Le Monde.

Lu’s comments took up most of the oxygen at the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s daily press conference on Monday (see transcripts in English, Chinese). Lu’s statement dominated the presser, with ministry spokesperson Máo Níng 毛宁 answering the first question by saying clearly that “China respects the status of the former Soviet republics as sovereign countries after the Soviet Union’s dissolution.”

When pressed regarding whether Beijing considers Ukraine to be a sovereign country – the sixth question asked regarding Lu’s comments — a visibly exasperated Mao laughed curtly before answering:

This question is deliberately leading. The country you mentioned is a full UN member state. It is understood by all that only sovereign countries can become UN member states. China has established and developed sound relations with Ukraine in line with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. Any attempt to drive a wedge in or disrupt China’s relations with relevant countries are ill-intentioned and will not succeed.

Mao’s answer is noteworthy in that it contains a swipe at Taiwan, which is not a UN member, although it has sovereignty and has never been controlled by the People’s Republic of China. Taiwan’s foreign minister, Joseph Wu (吳釗燮 Wú Zhāoxiè), told The China Project that he and the Taiwanese people know how “insulting” it is to have one’s sovereignty denied.

Lu’s comments “demonstrate that the P.R.C. ignores what the status quo and international laws are, whether in the Indo-Pacific or Europe,” Wu said.

“The silver lining for Taiwan is that with the awakening of Europe to the Chinese ambassador’s remarks, people in Europe now understand the problem the P.R.C. represents, and they can now better understand the situation Taiwan is in,” he said. “We hope that this new understanding will contribute to Europe’s overall support for Taiwan, and can lead all democracies to unite and counter the expansion of authoritarianism.”

Lithuanian member of parliament Dovilė Šakalienė told The China Project that Lu’s comments were a case of saying the quiet part out loud. Šakalienė is a member of the national security and defense committee and vice-chair of the Taiwan parliamentary relations group.

“The statement made by the Chinese ambassador to France continues the Chinese government’s denial of international law and treaties, and its attempt to move toward rule by the strongest,” she said. “Lithuania supports a rules-based world order and rejects any attempt to return world politics to the early 20th century.”

Underscoring just how damaging Lu’s comments were, the P.R.C. embassy in France published a statement on its website suggesting that Lu was not speaking for Beijing, but for himself.

The remarks by Ambassador Lu Shaye on the Ukraine issue were not a statement of politics, but an expression of personal views during a televised debate. They should not be subject to over-interpretation. China’s position on relevant issues has not changed.

Yáng Hán 杨涵, a former Chinese diplomat in Sydney from 1998 to 2001 who now lives in Australia, told The China Project by email that there is sympathy toward Russia and antipathy toward Ukraine among top decision makers in Beijing, while adding that the increasingly close Russia-China relationship was fueling a “vicious cycle.”

“The former Soviet states are warming to Taiwan in part because of China’s alliance with Russia,” Yang said.

Gangster-style threat

One week prior to Lu’s comments in France, Huáng Xīlián 黄溪连, the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, criticized Manila’s decision to allow the United States military use of several ports in the country’s north, close to Taiwan.

Speaking at an embassy-sponsored event on China-Philippines relations, Huang issued a naked threat to his hosts, saying, “The Philippines is advised to unequivocally oppose ‘Taiwan independence’ rather than stoking the fire by offering the U.S. access to the military bases near the Taiwan Strait if you care about the 150,000 overseas foreign workers.”

As of late February, 158,000 Filipinos reside in Taiwan, according to Taiwanese government data.

China engages in gray-zone tactics within the island’s coastal waters using fishing vessels and its coast guard, and has taken control of territory formerly administered by Manila — most notably Scarborough Shoal. Which is why for many in the Philippines, Huang’s statement was beyond the pale.

National Security Council spokesperson Jonathan Malaya issued a statement saying, “Our primordial concern in Taiwan is the safety and well-being of the more than 150,000 Filipinos living and working on the island,” adding, “We take grave exception to any effort by guests in our country to use this to fearmonger and intimidate us.”

President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has been more outspoken on China than his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. In February, Marcos said it would be “hard to imagine” that the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, could stay out of a Taiwan conflict.

In addition to the government, opposition politicians in Manila have expressed their anger at Huang’s threat. In an April 16 statement, Senator Risa Hontiveros of the opposition party Akbayan urged the presidential palace to tell China to recall Huang.

“He has no business being a diplomat if he is unable to engage with us in a respectful and dignified manner,” she said. “He, along with his country’s ships and artificial islands in the West Philippine Sea, should pack up and leave.”

Hontiveros, a socialist and former journalist, also spoke up for the right of self-determination for Taiwan.

“We in the Philippines respect the right of the Taiwanese people to self-determination, and this right must be upheld by all other nations that share this planet, even including the autocratic regime of China,” she said.

Beijing-Seoul ties continue to worsen

South Korea, another U.S. treaty ally, has also found itself in a diplomatic tussle with China.

On April 19 in an interview with Reuters, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared his opposition to any change in the cross-strait status quo by force, i.e., a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan, and compared China’s belligerence toward Taiwan with North Korea’s nuclear program, characterizing both as global problems.

The next day, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Wāng Wénbīn 汪文斌, rebuked Yoon at the ministry’s daily press conference. Seoul’s Foreign Ministry described Wang’s reply as “unspeakable.”

On Sunday, China’s vice foreign minister, Sūn Wèidōng 孙卫东, lodged solemn representations with Seoul’s envoy to China regarding Yoon’s comments, saying, “It is a well-known fact that the Korean Peninsula issue and the Taiwan issue are completely different in nature and in latitude and longitude, and are not comparable at all.”

Under Yoon’s predecessor, Moon Jae-in, South Korea had attempted to stay equidistant between China and the U.S. while being cool toward its former colonizer Japan. But Yoon, who took office one year ago, blamed Moon’s pro-Beijing policies for upsetting the previous balance under which South Korea coordinated its China policy alongside the United States and Japan, said Jada Fraser, a Washington-based analyst with a focus on Indo-Pacific security, and editor-in-chief of the Georgetown Journal of Asian Affairs.

“While Yoon has received criticism from analysts for largely refraining from significant foreign policy changes that might upset relations with China, he has delivered beyond expectations when it comes to reinvigorating Seoul-Tokyo ties and trilateral security cooperation with the United States.”

Yoon has also placed an emphasis on liberal democratic values in his foreign policy approach, Fraser told The China Project. This fosters overlap with Japan and Taiwan, whose foreign policy narratives share similar themes of cooperation among like-minded democracies, she said.

“Yoon likely views speaking up for Taiwan as part of pursuing his goal of having South Korea step up on the international stage,” Fraser added.

The repercussions of the past week for Chinese diplomacy will not be known for some time, but one thing does seem clear: Taiwan is emerging as a litmus test for where countries stand on the democracy-versus-authoritarianism debate. With Taiwan and the United States set to elect new presidents next year, this trend is unlikely to abate anytime soon.