The China Agenda for October 1–8 — Golden Week and China-Germany Finance Dialogue

This week is China’s National Day Golden Week, a nationwide holiday to celebrate the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, so there is less activity scheduled than usual for the country’s political organizations and financial markets. 

Upcoming diplomatic visits and international political events

The third China-Germany High-Level Finance Dialogue takes places on October 1 in Germany.

• Hé Lìfēng 何立峰, Politburo member and vice premier of the State Council, will co-chair the Dialogue with German Minister of Finance Christian Lindner.

The third Belt and Road International Cooperation Summit will take place in Beijing sometime in October, likely toward the end of the month. This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative’s launch.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 are expected to meet on the sidelines of the event. Putin’s spokesperson confirmed that dates had been agreed upon.

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is planning to lead a bipartisan delegation on a trip to China sometime this month.

• The group of congressional members will also visit Japan and South Korea.

China and Saudi Arabia will hold “Blue Sword-2023” joint naval drills in October near Guangdong, though precise dates are yet to be publicly announced.

The 2023 Asian Games, held in Hangzhou, are continuing this week, concluding on October 8. Foreign leaders and dignitaries that have attended or are attending this week include:

• King Sihamoni of Cambodia
• President Bashar of Syria
• Crown Prince Mishal of Kuwait
• Prime Minister Prachanda of Nepal
• Prime Minister Xanana of Timor-Leste
• Prime Minister Han Deok-soo of South Korea
• Speaker of the Lower House of the Parliament of Malaysia, Mr. Zoharie
• Prince Sufri, representative of the Sultan of Brunei
• Prince Jauan, representative of the Emir of Qatar
• Prince Faisal of Jordan
• Princess Hiriwanwali of Thailand
• Deputy Prime Minister Baysalov of Kyrgyzstan

Japan’s defense minister, Minoru Kihara, will be in Washington, D.C., for discussions with his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin. Reports have given “early October” as the timeline for the visit, though specific dates are yet to be forthcoming.

The second batch of treated Fukushima wastewater will be released on October 5.

• The release of the first batch in September drew strong condemnation from China and a propaganda onslaught, despite Chinese vessels continuing to ship in the affected waters.
• This comes as Natsuo Yamaguchi, the head of the Komeito Party (the junior coalition partner to the LDP in Japan’s government), signaled his intention to visit China this year. His previously planned visit in August was postponed over the wastewater issue.

Several United Nations events are happening this week:

• October 2–3, in Vienna: The 13th session of the Working Group on Trafficking in Persons, The Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime.
• October 2–6, in Geneva: The 36th session of the Working Group on the issue of human rights and transnational corporations and other business enterprises, Human Rights Council.
• October 2, in Vienna: the Board of Governors meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
• October 3–6, in Quito: The 31st meeting of the Latin America and the Caribbean Heads of National Drug Law Enforcement Agencies Commission on Narcotic Drugs.
• October 5–6, in Vienna: The 10th Session of the Working Group on the Smuggling of Migrants Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime.

Political events in China

China’s National Day is October 1, commemorating the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Yesterday, Xi Jinping attended a Martyrs’ Day event on Tiananmen Square, presenting flowers at a memorial.

The Party Central Committee is expected to hold a quinquennial plenary session to map out economic reforms for the years ahead this month.

• The Third Plenum, which could be held this month or in November, could herald some significant changes: earlier this year, Xi Jinping called for updating Party theory, and senior policy advisers have been discussing theoretical innovations to support the private sector.

China-related political events in the U.S. and around the world

This week, two relevant sessions are scheduled to be held in Congress. However, if the U.S. government proceeds with the shutdown, these will no longer take place:

• On October 4 at 2 p.m. ET, the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee will hold hearings to examine CHIPS and science implementation and oversight.
• On October 4 at 2:30 p.m. ET, the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy will hold hearings to examine security on the Korean Peninsula.

India and the U.S. will hold another edition of the Yudh Abhyas joint military exercise in Alaska September 25–October 8.

A new musical, titled Tiananmen, opens at the Phoenix Theater in Phoenix, Arizona, on October 4.

• The musical has been conceived by Wu’erkaixi (Örkesh Dölet, 吾尔开希·多莱特), one of the student protest leaders in Beijing in 1989.

Earnings reports, IPOs, and other business and market events

Data releases:

• On October 7, China will release its monthly data on its foreign exchange reserves. Forex reserves are the foreign assets held or controlled by the PBoC, China’s central bank.

IPOs

• On October 6, Tiantu Capital 天圖投資 will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Tiantu is a consumer sector-focused private equity investor.

Other events

Academic and think-tank events this week include:

CSIS: Allied Perspectives on Semiconductor Export Controls, October 2, 10 a.m. ET.

Wilson Center: Economists in the Cold War: How a Handful of Economists Fought the Battle of Ideas, October 2, 4 p.m. ET.

Columbia-Harvard China and the World Program: ‘Breaking the Dollar’s Monopoly: How China’s Regional De-Dollarization Initiative Is Reshaping International Finance’ with Zongyuan Zoe Liu, October 2, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Atlantic Council: Fragmenting commodity markets: How geopolitics may impact the future of energy, October 3, 9:30 a.m. ET.

Brookings: De-risking the economic relationship with China: Views from the Indo-Pacific, October 3, 9:30 a.m. ET.

Atlantic Council: Running out of road: China Pathfinder 2023 launch, October 4, 9:30 a.m. ET.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Reimagining Continental Asia: Launching a New Carnegie Initiative, October 4, 10 a.m. ET.

Brookings: Does the US need to seek to limit China’s economic growth in order to protect itself?, October 4, 4:30 p.m. ET.

India China Institute at The New School: New Frameworks for Food Security: India, China, and Shifting Global Orders, October 5, 9 a.m. ET.

CSIS: China’s Power: Up for Debate 2023, October 5, 9:30 a.m. ET.

CSIS: China and Russia’s Role in North Korea’s Human Rights Abuse, October 5, 9:30 a.m. ET.

Stanford APARC: APEC’s Role in the Evolving Asia-Pacific Order, October 6, 12 p.m. ET.