The China Agenda for October 30–November 5: Xiangshan Forum

The key events this week are the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing and the AI Safety Summit near London.

Upcoming diplomatic visits and international political events

The 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum will be held in Beijing on October 29–31. According to the Global Times, this international security dialogue “serves as a platform for the rising China to raise its voice, allowing the outside world to understand its global strategic direction and its strategic mentality.”

• Official delegations from more than 90 countries, regions, and international organizations are in Beijing for the forum, including 22 senior officials of defense minister level and above and 14 representatives of the military chief-of-staff level.
• General Zhāng Yòuxiá 张又侠, a vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, has already met with Lao Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Chansamone Chanyalath, the Mongolian Minister of Defense Gursed Saikhanbayar, Myanmar Deputy Prime Minister Admiral Tin Aung San, Pedro Klamar Fuik of East Timor, and Belarus’s Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin.
• The United States Department of Defense is among those sending a delegation.
• One glaring absence is China’s defense minister, a role now vacant following the unexplained disappearance and then official sacking of Lǐ Shàngfú 李尚福.

The United Kingdom is hosting the world’s first AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park on November 1–2.

• Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will bring together representatives from international governments, leading AI companies, civil society groups, and experts in research.
• China has accepted an invitation to attend, despite protestations from members of the U.K.’s ruling Conservative Party.
• The location is significant: Bletchley Park is the site where Britain’s code-breaking experts lived and worked during World War II, during which time Alan Turing and other researchers conducted foundational work on the world’s first programmable computers.

Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, will travel to China on November 4. He will spend three days in the country, on what is the first visit by an Australian prime minister to China for seven years, and the 50th anniversary of the first visit to China by an Australian prime minister, Gough Whitlam, in 1973.

• Albanese will meet with President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 and Premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强
• Beijing is reviewing its tariffs on Australian wine ahead of Albanese’s trip, and recently released jailed journalist Cheng Lei.
• Meanwhile, United States Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs Jennifer R. Littlejohn is in Australia. In a trip spanning October 21–31, she will also visit New Caledonia and Fiji, and lead the U.S. delegation to the Pacific Community (SPC) conference.
• The trip comes ahead of the Leaders’ Meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, held in San Francisco November 11–17.

Jean-Pierre Bonnet, Foreign Affairs Advisor to the President of France, will visit China on October 29–30 to hold the Sino-French Strategic Dialogue.

Tokyo Electric Power Company will start the third round of releasing treated and diluted water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on November 2.

• Previous releases have been met with blistering propaganda campaigns by the Chinese government, as well as Japanese seafood bans, despite the wastewater meeting international standards for safety.

The 11th Gay Games are taking place in Hong Kong November 3–11. This will be the first time the Games have been held in Asia.

• However, in August, the government warned organizers that the Games must be conducted in a “lawful, safe and orderly manner.” The government has also not provided any sponsorship for the Games.
• Hong Kong is yet to legalize same-sex marriage, and does not have laws protecting LGBTQ+ people from discrimination in the workplace.

Several relevant events at the United Nations are happening this week:

• The eighth session of the Human Rights Council’s Expert Mechanism on the Right to Development will be held in Geneva, October 30–November 1.
• The 32nd session of the Human Rights Council’s Working Group on Situations will be held in Geneva, October 30–November 3.
• The 15th session of the Human Rights Council’s intersessional forum on economic, social, and cultural rights will be held in Geneva November 2–3.
• The 162nd and 163rd meetings of the United Nations Environment Programme’s Committee of Permanent Representatives will be held in Nairobi on October 31.

Political events in China

China’s National Financial Work Conference starts on October 30. The sixth such meeting since 1997, this week’s iteration will likely focus on the property sector, small banks, and local government financing vehicles.

• This meeting follows the start of operations of the Central Finance Commission in September, which is now the P.R.C.’s primary planning body for the financial sector.

The Party Central Committee is expected to hold a quinquennial plenary session to map out economic reforms for the years ahead this month.

• The Third Plenum, which could be held this month or in November, could herald some significant changes: earlier this year, Xi Jinping called for updating Party theory, and senior policy advisors have been discussing theoretical innovations to support the private sector.

The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPCSC) is soliciting public comment on six bills through November 23. These include the second draft of the Law on Ensuring Food Security, the draft amendment to the Charity Law, and the draft revision to the Law on Guarding State Secrets, among others,

• You can find links to the Chinese drafts texts and unofficial translations on the NPC Observer website.

China-related political events in the U.S. and around the world

This week, two relevant sessions are being held in Congress:

• On October 31 at 10 a.m. ET, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will hold hearings to examine threats to the homeland.
• On November 1 at 10 a.m. ET, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will receive a closed briefing on Ukraine.

Market events

Data releases:

• On October 30 at 9:30 p.m. ET, China’s National Bureau of statistics will release its monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), which measures the performance of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the economy.
• On October 31 at 9:45 p.m. ET, Caixin will release its own monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector.
• On November 2 at 9:45 p.m. ET, Caixin will release its own monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for the services sector, as well as a composite PMI.
• On November 3
• On October 31 at 10:30 a.m. ET, Hong Kong will release its quarterly GDP data.

IPOs

• On October 30, 德冠新材 DECRO will list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. DECRO is a plastics manufacturer based in Guangdong.
• On November 2, 鍋圈食品 will list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company creates meal products for cooking at home.
• On November 3, 友宝 UBOX will list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Ubox is a vending machine company.

Earnings

• Apple is releasing its fourth quarter financial results on November 2 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
• HSBC is releasing its quarterly earnings on October 29 at 11 p.m. ET. A Zoom meeting with investors and analysts will be held on October 30 at 2:45 a.m.
• Jinko Solar is holding a quarterly earnings call on October 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
• Yum China is holding a quarterly earnings call on October 31 at 8 p.m. ET.
• Luckin Coffee is holding a quarterly earnings call on November 1 at 8 a.m. ET.

Other events

Academic and think-tank events this week include:

Brookings: Techlash: Who makes the rules in the digital Gilded Age?, October 30, 10 a.m. ET.

SOAS: Institutional Genes: Totalitarianism in China, October 30, 1 p.m. ET

Columbia WEAI: China’s Prosperous Middle Class and Consumption-Led Growth: Catching up with the West?, October 30, 5 p.m. ET.

Asia Society: ChinaFile Presents: China Reporting in Exile, October 30, 6:30 p.m. ET.

CSIS: Unpacking Recent Developments in the Chinese Military: What’s Happening within the PLA?, October 31, 9 a.m. ET.

Stimson Center: China in South Asia: Understanding Beijing’s Evolving Influence in Smaller South Asian States, October 31, 9 a.m. ET.

Wilson Center: China’s Critical Mineral Investments in Africa, October 31, 9:30 a.m. ET.

Berlin Contemporary China Network: Digital Governance in China, October 31, 11:15 a.m. ET.

Stanford APARC: Asia-Pacific Energy Challenges and the Role of APEC, November 1, 12 p.m. ET.