Coronavirus Updates — March 11, 2020
Cancel everything
Today, the World Health Organization officially declared the coronavirus to be a pandemic. While there is no concrete, measurable definition that makes an outbreak a pandemic instead of an epidemic, the two main criteria that generally determine the differentiation are the number of countries affected (i.e. the disease needs to be in many parts of the world, not just a few), and the existence of community spread among people who do not have direct connections to the center of the outbreak.
Yesterday, a coronavirus conference was canceled due to….coronavirus. You can’t make this stuff up.
“Cancel Everything” is the headline of a piece published in The Atlantic yesterday. The article argues that the countries that acted aggressively and early to contain the virus have seen new cases of the disease level off rather quickly (think: South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan). On the other hand, countries that waited until it was too late, or enacted only half-measures have seen continued exponential spreading rates and higher death rates, too (think: Italy, Iran).
Which path will the U.S. follow? From the Atlantic:
We don’t yet know the full ramifications of the novel coronavirus. But three crucial facts have become clear in the first months of this extraordinary global event. And what they add up to is not an invocation to stay calm, as so many politicians around the globe are incessantly suggesting; it is, on the contrary, the case for changing our behavior in radical ways—right now.
The first fact is that, at least in the initial stages, documented cases of COVID-19 seem to increase in exponential fashion. The second fact is that this disease is deadlier than the flu, to which the honestly ill-informed and the wantonly irresponsible insist on comparing it. The third fact is that so far only one measure has been effective against the coronavirus: extreme social distancing.
Another piece published yesterday by Vox shows in one chart how canceled events and quarantines can save lives by spreading out the number of sick people over a longer period of time, thus preventing the healthcare system from getting overloaded. Also, getting sick months from now would be better than getting sick today: doctors and scientists learn more about treating the disease with each passing day.
The U.S. doesn’t know what it doesn’t know
Officially reported coronavirus cases edged past 1,000 last night, up from just 761 yesterday morning. That’s a 50% per day growth rate, but the worst part is that due to insufficient testing, the real numbers in the U.S. are likely much higher. That means that untold numbers of infected people are both suffering from the disease and unknowingly spreading the virus. From The Atlantic:
After surveying local data from across the country, we can only verify that 4,384 people have been tested for the coronavirus nationwide, as of Monday at 4 p.m. eastern time. These data are as comprehensive a compilation of official statistics as currently possible.
The lack of testing means that it is almost impossible to know how many Americans are infected with the coronavirus and suffering from COVID-19, the disease it causes.
The sluggish rollout of the tests has become a debilitating weakness in America’s response to the spread of the coronavirus. By this point in its outbreak, South Korea had tested more than 100,000 people for the disease, and it was testing roughly 15,000 people every day. The United Kingdom, where three people have died of COVID-19, has already tested more than 24,900 people.
So how many people in the U.S. have the virus? How will the U.S. respond as the crisis gains momentum?
If you still go out, be smart
Despite the seemingly undeniable logic of immediate and aggressive social distancing, some of us will be simply unable or unwilling to withdraw from society altogether. Here are a few articles about how various civic and commercial institutions are handling the crisis:
- Religion: Churches are leveraging technology and changing old habits to respond to the crisis. (USA Today)
- Food: What you need to know about eating out in the time of the coronavirus (Washington Post). One restaurant in LA is taking the temperature of diners before they are allowed in the restaurant.
- Fitness: Coronavirus and gyms: what you need to know. (NYT, porous paywall)
Around the world in 30 seconds
- Five new countries reported their first cases — Brunei Darussalam, Mongolia, Cyprus, Guernsey, and Panama. (World Health Organization)
- Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, who is not known for unnecessary drama has said that more than two thirds of the German population could become infected. (BBC)
- In Iran, at least 44 people have died after drinking toxic, counterfeit alcohol based on internet rumors that drinking alcohol would cure or prevent the disease. (USA Today)
- Italy surpassed 10,000 cases as country nears total shutdown. (CNBC)
- Ukraine is among the latest countries to start shutting down. (Kyiv Post)
Cure and vaccine radar
No concrete, verifiable developments, but a few articles from around the internet that talk about the prospects for progress:
- Israeli-made oral vaccine on track, but testing will take months. (Times of Israel)
- We’re learning how to beat coronavirus, but healthcare workers need more training. (NYPost)
- More than a year to develop a coronavirus vaccine despite progress in medical research? Why? (Science Times)
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Take care, and don’t forget to wash your hands!
