Everything hits at once | COVID-19 Updates for March 16, 2020

Everything hits at once

COVID-19 infections and deaths outside of China now outnumber those in China, according to official data — and President Trump is finally beginning to take the crisis seriously. On Friday, he declared a national emergency, freeing up billions of dollars in government funds.

Schools are closing across the U.S., and cities and states from California to Illinois to Ohio to Massachusetts and New York City are shutting down restaurants, shops, and places of non-essential public gathering. Apple, the world’s most valuable company, has closed all of its stores outside of China (where stores recently opened after weeks of closure). 

But companies like Apple and their shareholders are likely to fare much better than many of their employees.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 58% of the U.S. workforce is paid based on hourly rates. Less hours worked means less money made. Many of those who can still work may not be able to, as they have the newly imposed burden of taking care of their children who are normally in school most of the day.

It gets worse: On top of reduced earnings, many of the worst-affected families may get a double whammy, in the form of increased costs. Up to 30 million children in the U.S. depend on school for at least one meal a day. This is in a country where the majority of the population cannot afford to miss even one paycheck. 

Most economic recessions involve incremental reductions in commercial activity. But during a pandemic, everything shuts down at once, and no strategic shift or competitive moves by any company can overcome the forces that are pulling the economy down. 

This isn’t a financial crisis or even an economic crisis — it’s a human crisis.

One is the loneliest number

Even before the coronavirus epidemic, there has been growing concern about a so-called loneliness epidemic in advanced economies, where digital information, interactions, and relationships appear to be replacing real ones. Headlines throughout 2019 talked about how everyone from millennials to the aging were facing upticks in reported loneliness. Some declared that “loneliness is the sad reality of modern life”.

COVID-19 will not help, with the primary method of confronting the disease being the now-ubiquitous “social distancing”. 

A collection of headlines from over the weekend:

• Coronavirus will also cause a loneliness epidemic (Vox)
• Coronavirus: How to protect your mental health (BBC)
• What you need to know about California’s lockdown of seniors and the chronically ill (CalMatters.org)
• Quarantine has serious impact on mental health. Here’s how to support yourself and others (Quartz)
• How to keep coronavirus fears from affecting your mental health (CNN)

The economy is at a breaking point

Economists are in near-unanimous agreement that the U.S. economy is at severe risk of entering recession due to the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on businesses, employees, consumers, and investors. 

Indeed, China — the world’s second-largest economy after the U.S. — is already in the throes of an acute economic contraction, which shows no sign of being over. China entered the coronavirus crisis about two months before the rest of the world, so whatever happens there may be a strong indicator of what is to follow elsewhere.

• U.S. stock markets plummeted at the open on Monday. (CNBC)
• This, despite the U.S. government cutting interest rates to zero and freeing up trillions of dollars of cash to flow into financial markets (CNBC here and here)
• Volkswagen, the world’s second-largest auto manufacturer, closes factories around Europe and the U.S. So does Fiat-Chrysler (WSJ)
• Apple closes all stores outside of China (its China stores are slowly reopening after having already been closed for weeks) (Business Insider)
• Nike has closed all of its 384 retail stores across the U.S. (CNBC)

Around the U.S.

U.S. cases more than doubled over the weekend, according to official data from the World Health Organization.

As of today, West Virginia is the only state to not have reported cases of COVID-19. This comes about seven weeks after the first case was reported on January 21st, around which time Trump felt “we have it very well under control”.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has released guidance that all gatherings of more than 50 people in the U.S. should be postponed or canceled.

On the bright side: NBA stars are helping pay the salaries of stadium workers during the coronavirus shutdown.

• The problems with our coronavirus testing are worse than you think (Axios)
• Hospitals delay elective surgeries and other non-urgent care to make room for coronavirus influx (WSJ)
• New York City finally made the decision to close its school system — the nation’s largest — after its teachers union threatened to go on strike to force the move, after more than 329 cases of COVID-19 were reported among students. (NYT)
• U.S. health agency suffers cyber-attack during COVID-19 response (Bloomberg)
• It’s not just toilet paper — people are stockpiling guns, ammunition, and more. (USA Today)
• Airports became disaster sites all their own after coronavirus temperature scans and travel restrictions went into place. (Buzzfeed)
• Thousands left a Miami cruise ship without screenings after a former passenger got COVID-19. (Miami Herald)

Around the world in 30 seconds

• Denmark has closed its borders and called on its overseas citizens to return home. (TheLocal.dk)
• Germany has also closed its borders. (BBC)
• Italy suffered record daily losses — 368 new deaths and 3,590 new cases in 24 hours. (Axios)
• 35 Italian tourists in Ethiopia refused to return to Italy despite the expiration of their visas (Transports.ng)
• As coronavirus spreads in Africa, countries move quickly to contain disease with travel bans, closures (SCMP)
• Spain and France have joined Italy in enforcing massive, society-wide shutdowns to stem the spread of the disease, after Spain sees overnight doubling in deaths. (BBC)
• India so far has only reported 113 cases, but the second most-populous country in the world with 1.38 billion people has gone on the offensive, shutting down school systems and other parts of society and the economy. (The Hindu) 

Cure and vaccine radar

News reports of potential vaccine developments have proliferated from Canada to Germany to the U.S. to Israel, but none offer concrete outcomes and vaguely reference optimism that progress is being made. 

• Anatomy of a killer (Economist)
• When will a coronavirus vaccine be ready? (The Guardian)
• Government official: Coronavirus vaccine trial starts Monday. (AP)
• As the coronavirus spreads, a drug that once raised the world’s hopes is given a second shot. (Stat News)
• With weeks to go to COVID-19 vaccine trial, BioNTech landed aed a $135 million deal and is in advanced talks with Pfizer. (Fierce Biotech)
• Coronavirus: Canadian researchers have made progress toward a vaccine. (Montreal Gazette)