China might soon have four approved COVID-19 vaccines

Science & Health

On the same day that U.S. regulators cleared the way for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to become the country's third approved COVID-19 shot, two more Chinese companies applied for public rollouts of their vaccines in China.

Illustration by Derek Zheng

Todayโ€™s COVID-19 vaccine news was good. In the U.S., a single-dose shot developed by Johnson & Johnson received high marks from regulators, promising to become the countryโ€™s third approved vaccine. In China, meanwhile, two more domestically developed vaccines applied for public rollouts.

  • A second vaccine from Sinopharm, which had its first shot approved in China at the end of December, reportedly has an โ€œefficacy rate of 72.51%,โ€ per Reuters.
  • CanSinoBIO, which developed a vaccine in cooperation with the Academy of Military Medical Sciences, said that the single-dose shot it submitted for approval had a โ€œsuccess rate of 68.83% at preventing all symptomatic disease and 95.47% at preventing severe disease 14 days after vaccination.โ€

Implications for Chinaโ€™s domestic vaccine rollout

As we have previously reported on The China Project, the domestic vaccine rollout has been surprisingly slow in China. According to the latest data in the Bloomberg vaccine tracker, China has distributed more doses than the EU, but it remains far behind in the number of shots per 100 people:

  • China โ€” 2.89
  • EU โ€” 6.30
  • U.S. โ€” 19.59

Vaccine diplomacy appears to be a major reason for the slow rollout, as Beijing exported much of its supply overseas, rather than launching mass vaccination campaigns at home.

However, vaccine hesitancy is also playing a role, says Adam Minter, a columnist at Bloomberg:

  • Despite polling from last year suggesting that โ€œintent to get the COVID shot was higher in China than anywhere else,โ€ epidemiologist Abram Wagner told Minter that itโ€™s โ€œvery different to be in a survey going, โ€˜I want to get a vaccine,โ€™ versus youโ€™re at work and theyโ€™re offering a COVID vaccine.โ€
  • A history of vaccine safety issues, including recent news of authorities cracking down on counterfeit COVID vaccines, likely increases reservations in China.

Minter suggests that China wonโ€™t be a vaccine laggard for long, especially once the authorities put their mind to it, given the countryโ€™s history of effective public-health campaigns.

  • It also wonโ€™t hurt to have more options for shots and more supply in the future.

Implications for Chinaโ€™s vaccine diplomacy

In contrast to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which require extra-cold storage temperatures, making distribution challenging, all four of Chinaโ€™s vaccines that have been submitted for public rollout โ€œcan be stored at normal freezer temperatures,โ€ per Reuters.

The single-shot dose from CanSinoBIO may also be an attractive competitor to Johnson & Johnson, if health departments in countries around the world are shopping to simplify their vaccine rollouts over the coming year.

For now, the U.S. and Europe remain peripheral to efforts to vaccinate the majority of the world population, while China competes primarily with India and Russia to seal bilateral supply deals.

  • In a โ€œcavernous new airport cargo terminalโ€ in Ethiopia, for example, Chinese vaccines are arriving at a rate of a million a week or more, officials told the Wall Street Journal.

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