China’s COVID zero is going to look very different soon
China’s pandemic policies are going to look very different in a few months from now.
I read Jeremy’s Editor’s Note from yesterday — with the subject line “No end to COVID zero,” followed by an article titled “Beijing is still committed to COVID zero despite economic and human costs” — with interest. “I have colleagues in China who tell me that things are really going to loosen up soon,” Jeremy wrote. I am one of those colleagues. I’ve been in Beijing since the pandemic began, living under COVID zero, and have been keenly attuned to changes in the policy.
“Dynamic COVID zero,” as the Party defines it, may not necessarily go away, but it will look very different in the next four months. It already looks much different than four months ago.
It’s hard for people who don’t live here to notice these changes, especially amid headlines about lockdowns (admittedly, I’m responsible for some of those headlines) and swabbing of fish. But consider just these recent developments:
- On October 20, Bloomberg reported that officials were discussing cutting quarantine time for inbound travelers from 10 days to seven days, with as few as two of those seven in a hotel (plus five at home).
- That same week, prices of international flights to and from China continued to drop. The week after, the Civil Aviation Administration of China said its number of international flights was set to double.
- On Tuesday, Chinese stocks surged after rumors spread that a “Reopening Committee” had been formed, headed by Wáng Hùníng 王沪宁, to discuss how to phase out COVID zero.
- On Wednesday, Wáng Fúshēng 王福生, an expert of infectious diseases at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at a press conference at the State Council that “COVID is a self-limiting disease, and a good attitude is the best immunity,” and advocated for vaccinations.
- On Thursday, the People’s Daily published a story saying new strains of the novel coronavirus cause only “short-lived, mild” symptoms.
- Just today, a former Chinese disease control official said at a Citigroup conference that “substantial changes” are coming to China’s COVID policy. And this from Bloomberg: “China is preparing a plan to end COVID flight suspensions.”
One thing Jeremy and I do agree on, though: The pandemic has spurred Chinese companies to develop new tracking and surveillance software and upgrade their existing systems. We’ve seen no indication that they’ve installed a delete button. (Quite the contrary, in fact.)
