War and sanctions

The Cold War ended as I came of age: The Berlin Wall fell in November 1989, while I was preparing for my high school graduation examinations in South Africa. Nelson Mandela was released from prison after 27 years behind bars on February 11, 1990, the day before I started college, and I tore up my military draft papers that same day — as a white South African male, I was supposed to go to the army for two years after my bachelor’s degree.

Then I went to China in 1995, as its opening up to the outside world was accelerating. People from all over the world were arriving to set up or grow embassies, consulates, and companies, buy and sell stuff and travel. The same thing was happening in Russia, and across the formerly communist world. Globalization seemed inevitable.

No longer. In fact, we are now in a period of deglobalization, and nowhere is this more keenly felt than in China’s relationship with the Western world.

Many of the stories in today’s newsletter examine what that means for all of us.

In case you missed them, our newsletters this week covered all the China news you need to know: Here are the web versions for August 14, 15, 16, and 17.

Upcoming events:

• If you can be in New York on November 2, let’s meet at NEXTChina 2023. The theme is: What does China want?
• There are still a few tickets left for the Serica Initiative Trailblazers Gala on September 13, 2023 organized by our sister non-profit, honoring special guests including Star Trek actor and civil rights activist George Takei, and Patricia Chin, co-founder of the world’s largest independent reggae label.

Finally, our Phrase of the Week is: rising from the ashes (浴火重生 yùhuǒ chóngshēng), referring to the amazing Phoenix-like revival of China’s Luckin Coffee, which has recovered from fraud scandals to overtake Starbucks as China’s biggest coffee chain.

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Jeremy Goldkorn Editor-in-Chief

Goldstein offers his perspectives on an extensive wargaming exercise focusing on a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan, conducted under the auspices of CSIS (the Center for Strategic and International Studies) and published in January of this year — the first such exercise whose findings were made public. He offers insight into the real value of the exercise, as well as some of its shortcomings.

What about economic war? Future conflicts might be fought with spreadsheets, tariffs, and trade restrictions. Both the U.S. and China are gearing up, possibly to everyone’s detriment. Dylan Levi King looks at how financial conflict might play out in an essay titled: The next world war will be economic — even if the weapons don’t work

But this week, there was no economic or armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait: During stops through the United States this week, Taiwan’s vice president and current frontrunner for the upcoming presidential election William Lai (賴清德 Lài Qīngdé) sought to portray himself as a pragmatic successor to (蔡英文 Cài Yīngwén), and there were no fireworks from Beijing. Jordyn Haime reports from Taipei.

COVID restrictions kept him away for nearly four years, but he just returned from a short trip to Beijing and Shanghai, where he met friends and colleagues, some of whom are establishment figures and some of whom are distinctly out of favor with the current regime. Mahboubi is maximalist when it comes to academic engagement with China, even as many fellow scholars from around the world have decided to stay away. These are his reflections on returning after nearly four years away.

More on decoupling and de-risking:

Italy was the only G7 country to become a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) when it joined in 2019. But Rome has signaled it will likely exit the deal, in a move that will likely anger Beijing.

Wind turbines that make clean electricity need magnets from China and bearings from the West. But the smooth trade in such goods that will be vital for an energy transition away from fossil fuels is under threat.

Chinese tech will lose more than money as Biden blocks U.S. venture capital, but P.R.C. startups can look elsewhere.

Writing from Johannesburg, South Africa, where BRICS will hold its 15th heads of state and government summit from August 22 to 24, Cobus van Staden examines the appeal of the group to developing countries, in the latest installment of the Southern View column.

Nonetheless, not everyone in the Global South is charmed by China: A convoy of Chinese engineers working on the Beijing-funded Gwadar Port was ambushed with bombs and gunfire in Pakistan. Militants from local separatist group Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) have since claimed responsibility for the attack.

While the number of university students has continued to expand, he said “society has different views on whether students looking for jobs before graduation should be included in labor force surveys and statistics,” as per Reuters. And hence the issue “needs further research.”

No one thinks this is good news.

Also in the news:

Hikvision proudly calls itself “the world’s largest video surveillance manufacturer,” but it doesn’t want the world to know that the Chinese government uses its AI-enabled technology for racial profiling. A new report shows it is still selling Uyghur-tracking surveillance cameras, and they use chips made by American semiconductor firm NVIDIA.

Where is Xí Jìnpíng 习近平? Phil Cunningham watches China’s prime-time news program on state broadcaster CCTV every night and writes caustic commentary about the personality cult around China’s leader that makes up most of the news. For some reason, Xi has not appeared on the show in more than two weeks, and it makes for a refreshing change.

Emotions on the issue are still running high on U.S. President Joe Biden’s characterization of Xi Jinping as a “dictator.” But does it matter?

A convoy of Chinese engineers was attacked in Pakistan. They were working on the increasingly controversial Chinese-funded Gwadar Port, and now extremist groups are getting involved.

Italy was the only G7 country in the Belt and Road Initiative after it joined in 2019. But now the country is thinking of leaving, the trick is doing so without completely cutting ties with Beijing.

China has suspended publication of its youth unemployment data amidst increasing rates as the country deals with a barrage of economic dilemmas. What lies at the heart of the unemployment issue?

Read more in the latest installment of bestselling author Paul French’s Ultimate China Bookshelf.

More from China’s past:

Mao’s Cultural Revolution turns deadly. This Week in China’s History by James Carter looks back on August 18, 1966: In front of a million supporters at Tiananmen, a symbolic gesture from Máo Zédōng 毛泽东 made it clear that the Red Guards had his official endorsement to continue enacting, with violence, their rebellion against authority figures. You can also listen to the audio version of this piece.